NLDS Preview: Cardinals vs. Dodgers

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The Dodgers and the Cardinals have 35 National League pennants and sixteen World Championships between them. That said, there isn’t a ton of historical late season drama between these two teams. When the Gashouse Gang Cardinals were flying high, the Dodgers were bums. When those Jackie Robinson/Duke Snider Dodgers teams were manufacturing nostalgia, the Cardinals were often Stan Musial, a wish and a prayer.  Each franchise had some great 1960s teams and some great moments after that, but for most of their history they have see-sawed like birds on a bat.

Recent history has the Cardinals beating L.A. in the dramatic 1985 NLCS and once again topping the boys in blue in the 2004 division series.  Based on my uber-complicated scientific breakdown of this year’s NLDS — really, it involved beakers and a sextant and six different intellectual strains of alchemy — I have concluded that, once again, the Cardinals are going to beat the Dodgers.  Let’s see why, shall we?

2009 NLDS Probables 

Game 1: Chris Carpenter vs. Randy Wolf

Game 2: Adam Wainwright vs. Clayton Kershaw 

Game 3: Joel Piniero vs. Chad Billingsley. At least we think. UPDATE: Try Vicente Padilla!

Game 4:  Kyle Lohse or maybe a Lohse/Smoltz committee start or, if they’re in deep doo-doo, Carpenter on short rest vs. Dear God, the Dodgers have a decision to make, don’t they?

Game 5: Carpenter or Wainwright vs. Wolf or Kershaw.

As you can see, the starting pitching is where the rubber really hits the road in this series.  The Cardinals have what is almost certainly the best rotation in the playoffs, with two Cy Young candidates, a guy who never walks anybody, a totally serviceable fourth starter in Kyle Lohse, and the all-time postseason wins leader that is John Smoltz. And Tony La Russa is a total genius, so even if one of those guys lays and egg or gets slick balls or something, I’m sure he’ll be able to synthesize another starter out of some anti-matter and a few loose hairs found in an old Joaquin Andujar cap they found before demolishing the last Busch Stadium.

The Dodgers, in contrast, are kind of up the creek.  Billingsley has been erratic, having his last start skipped because of it.  He’s going to throw a simulated game today or tomorrow and unless something goes terribly wrong —  say, he gets simulatedly shelled — he should be the Game 3 guy. UPDATE: Or not.  Game 4 is going to be a toughie. Kuroda is hurt. Vicente Padilla pitched well yesterday, but the Rockies didn’t exactly throw their major league lineup out there. Jon Garland allowed five runs in 3 1/3 innings his last time out and is no one’s idea of a savior.  The Dodgers have had some decent rotation depth this year, but they are sorely lacking in high quality.  If I were Joe Torre, I’d consider a three-man rotation.

Upshot: I like Kershaw an awful lot and could totally see him shutting the Cards down, but I like the Cardinals in every other matchup. The Dodgers’ best chance to win this thing is based on the Cardinals mighty struggles vs. lefties this year, but if they can break through against either Wolf or Kershaw, L.A. is in deep trouble.

 

Offenses:  Both teams have a superstar (Pujols and Ramirez), a solid second banana (Holliday and Kemp) and a bunch of guys you can pitch to. To be fair, the Dodgers probably have a third banana in Ethier, and their offense is stronger from top to bottom, but that 1-2 punch is a doozy.  Of course, I’m reminded a bit of the Astros of the 1990s here, in that they always had a solid 1-2 in Bagwell and Biggio but would routinely get sent packing by the Braves or whoever.

Upshot: Ultimately, though, I just don’t think the Dodgers have the arms to shut both Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday down for five games, and as noted above, the runs will be hard to come by for L.A.

 

Bullpens: A lot of Dodgers fans are probably about ready to pounce on me for not noting that L.A. had the best bullpen in all of creation in 2009.  Fair point, but as Christina Kahrl points out here (sorry; subscription only), overall bullpen numbers can be misleading when the playoffs roll around.

Why? Because bullpen usage changes dramatically in the postseason. You don’t go six or seven arms deep in October, and you don’t save a guy for tomorrow when there may be no tomorrow. Indeed, if you cut things down to the top four or five relievers that a team is likely to use, the Cardinals’ Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes/Blake Hacksworth has actually been better than the Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Ramon Troncoso/Ronald Belisario and Hong-Chih Kuo.

Upshot: The Dodgers pen is great, but the Cardinals is pretty darn good in its own right, even if it doesn’t look as sexy on paper. The difference certainly isn’t enough to neutralize the rotational differences and the mighty and just fury of Albert Pujols’ bat.

 

Overrated Angle: These games will be on TBS instead of FOX, so the “we must create a compelling storyline and drive it into the ground” thing won’t be quite as obvious, but I’m sure we’ll see one of two things hit hard and hit often: (a) Torre vs. La Russa: the battle of Hall of Fame managers!; and (b) Manny vs. Pujols: the battle of evil superstar vs. good superstar!  I’ll grant that those four guys are the biggest personalities in this series and thus will create some appeal to even the more common fans, but that’s all pretty boring, ain’t it?

Underrated Angle: The surprising balance of the Cardinals. Above comments notwithstanding, it’s not all Albert and Matt.  Yadier Molina had a great offensive season — especially for a Molina — and is outstanding behind the dish. Ludwick and Ankiel aren’t fabulous or anything, but they’re capable. Joel Piniero is not as big a falloff from Carpenter and Wainwright as most people think and, like I said, the Cardinals’ bullpen is being seriously undersold.  They’ll be a lot of talk about how both the Dodgers and the Cardinals skidded into the postseason, but the Cardinals (a) weren’t really playing for anything; and (b) are a better overall team in my estimation.

 

Prediction: Kershaw beats St. Louis in Game 2, but the Cardinals win it, 3-1 as the back end of the Dodgers’ rotation is exposed.

Reds place Devin Mesoraco on the disabled list with a torn labrum

Cincinnati Reds' Devin Mesoraco watches from the dugout during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Saturday, April 30, 2016. The Pirates won 5-1. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
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The Reds have placed catcher Devin Mesoraco on the 15-day disabled list with a torn labrum in his left shoulder, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reportsRosecrans adds that Mesoraco and the Reds will discuss whether or not the catcher will undergo surgery.

To fill Mesoraco’s roster spot, the club called up catcher Ramon Cabrera from Triple-A Louisville. Tucker Barnhart is expected to start the lion’s share of games in Mesoraco’s absence.

Mesoraco was scuffling prior to the injury, as he was batting a mere .140/.218/.160 with only one extra-base hit and one RBI in 55 plate appearances.

Dodgers’ Josh Ravin suspended 80 games for using a banned substance

Los Angeles Dodgers' Josh Ravin, right, reacts as New York Mets' Lucas Duda (21) runs the bases after hitting a home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game Saturday, July 25, 2015, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
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Update #2 (6:53 PM EDT): Ravin released a statement through the players’ union. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times provides it:

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Update (6:35 PM EDT): MLB made the announcement.

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Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports is reporting that Dodgers pitcher Josh Ravin will be suspended 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance. When it is made official by Major League Baseball, Ravin will be the sixth major league player to earn a suspension after testing positive, joining Dee Gordon, Chris Colabello, Abraham Almonte, Daniel Stumpf, and Jenrry Mejia.

Ravin, 28, hasn’t pitched this year as he broke his arm in a car accident during spring training, but was expected to return before the end of May. He debuted in the majors last season, making nine relief appearances for the Dodgers. He yielded seven runs on 13 hits and four walks with 12 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings. Ravin made 22 appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City as well.

Ravin will be eligible to return in early August.

The Braves made a flurry of roster moves ahead of Monday’s game

Atlanta Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz throws against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
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On the heels of Sunday’s transaction snafu, the Braves made a flurry of roster moves — seven, to be exact — on Monday, the club announced. Pitcher Mike Foltynewicz was recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett. The contracts of utilityman Chase d’Arnaud, outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo, and infielder Reid Brignac were selected from Gwinnett. Pitcher John Gant and utilityman Jace Peterson were optioned to Gwinnett. Outfielder Drew Stubbs was designated for assignment.

Whew.

Foltynewicz is starting Monday night’s game against the Mets, opposite Bartolo Colon. In four starts with Gwinnett, Foltynewicz put up a 2.05 ERA with a 20/14 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. Control has always been an issue for the right-hander, though he was able to limit the walks to 29 over 86 2/3 major league innings last year.

The Braves enter play Monday at 6-18, the worst record in baseball. The club is reportedly embracing the tank and is now trying to buy draft picks by taking on bad contracts.

J.J. Hardy to miss four to eight weeks with a hairline fracture in his right foot

Baltimore Orioles' J.J. Hardy watches his double during the second inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox, Wednesday, June 10, 2015, in Baltimore. Delmon Young scored on the play. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
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Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy is expected to miss four to eight weeks due to a hairline fracture in his right foot, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports. Hardy suffered the injury fouling a ball off of his foot in the fourth inning of Sunday’s game against the White Sox.

The Orioles have some options when it comes to replacing Hardy. Third baseman Manny Machado could move to shortstop, his natural position, and Ryan Flaherty would cover third base. Paul Janish is another option, but he’ll be leaving Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday for the birth of his child. As Kubatko notes, both Pedro Alvarez and Chris Davis could also play third base in a pinch.

Hardy, 33, is batting .244/.291/.410 with a pair of home runs and eight RBI over 86 plate appearances to begin the season. That’s markedly better than the meager .219/.253/.311 line he put up last year.