How did the Twins get to another one-game playoff?

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When the Twins lost in Detroit last Wednesday it looked (to me at least) like their season was over. They were three games back in the AL Central with four games left, which put their playoff odds at around five percent with a deficit that no team in baseball history had come back from.
So naturally they won the next four games while the Tigers went 1-3 and now the Twins are the only team in baseball history to be in a one-game playoff in back-to-back seasons.
Not only did the Twins erase the Tigers’ three-game lead in four days to force a Game 163 for the second straight year, they’ve won 16 of 20 games since Justin Morneau was shut down with a back injury and are 30-14 since falling a season-worst six games below .500 at 56-62 in mid-August.
Some of the individual performances during their dramatic team-wide turnaround are mind-boggling. Michael Cuddyer was already having a very solid year when Morneau went down, but since replacing him at first base he’s hit .333 with eight homers and 24 RBIs in 20 games. Delmon Young became the everyday left fielder when Cuddyer shifted to first base, and has hit .363 with four homers and 17 RBIs in 20 games after previously batting just .265/.287/.387.
Joe Crede’s season-ending back injury opened a hole at third base and Ron Gardenhire decided to fill it with utility infielder Matt Tolbert, who’d posted a dreadful .234/.300/.307 career line. Since then he’s started 17 of 20 games while hitting .306/.338/.452 with Crede-like defense. Orlando Cabrera batted .237 with a putrid .268 on-base percentage through his first 43 games with the Twins, but over his last 15 games has hit .433 while scoring a run in all but one of them.
Toss in the continued season-long excellence of Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, and Denard Span, and the Morneau-less Twins’ lineup has been on absolute fire with 127 runs over 20 games. That works out to 6.4 runs per game after the offense averaged a modest 4.8 runs through the first 142 games. And the pitching staff that fell apart thanks to injuries in the rotation and shoddy relief work has experienced a similar turnaround, allowing 20 percent fewer runs during the 30-14 stretch.
The rotation’s new front four of Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, and Brian Duensing were a combined 17-9 with a 3.76 ERA over that 44-game stretch and relievers Jesse Crain (1.37), Jon Rauch (1.80), Matt Guerrier (2.00), Ron Mahay (2.08), and Jose Mijares (2.45) each had ERAs under 2.50. In fact, the only relievers to post an ERA above 2.50 while appearing in at least 10 of the 44 games were Joe Nathan at 3.22 and Bobby Keppel at 6.61.
Apparently when fourth-fifths of the rotation is humming along, the lineup is filled with guys hitting .350, and every reliever coming out of the bullpen has a 2.00 ERA … well, some crazy things can happen.

David Phelps to undergo Tommy John surgery

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Pitcher David Phelps has a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his 2018 season, the Mariners announced on Wednesday. Phelps was making brief one-inning stints in the Cactus League as he worked his way back from a procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow last September. He said he felt the ligament tear on his final pitch against the Angels in his March 17 appearance.

Phelps, 31, was expected to set up for closer Edwin Diaz. The right-hander, between the Marlins and Mariners last season, posted a 3.40 ERA with a 62/26 K/BB ratio in 55 2/3 innings. He and the Mariners avoided arbitration in January, agreeing on a $5.55 million salary for the 2018 campaign. Phelps will become eligible to become a free agent at the end of the season.

As the Mariners noted in their statement, the expected recovery period for Tommy John surgery is 12-15 months, so this very likely cuts into Phelps’ 2019 season as well.