Top 111 Free Agents: Nos. 35-21

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This is part five in a series of columns looking at this winter’s free agent class. I’m listing each player along with his age, as of next April 1, and his place in the previous edition of these rankings from May.
Nos. 111-91
Nos. 90-71
Nos. 70-51
Nos. 50-36
35. Miguel Tejada (35) – Prev. #49 – Tejada is still racking up plenty of singles and doubles, but they’re coming with very few walks and a mediocre on-base percentage. In the second half, he’s hit .265/.294/.391, leaving him at .303/.332/.440 overall. With his range on the decline, many believe he belongs at third base these days, yet he probably doesn’t have the bat to be a quality regular at the position. The team that gives him a multiyear deal this winter figures to regret it.
34. Erik Bedard (31) – Prev. #2 – Coming back from shoulder surgery, Bedard defied expectations by opening the year in the Seattle rotation and immediately reemerging as one of the league’s elite starters. Unfortunately, it lasted just two months. Bedard went down again in each June, returned to make four starts in July and then had to shut it down again. Labrum surgery followed, and Bedard figures to miss the first month of 2010. Odds are that his next contract will include one guaranteed season and an expensive option for 2011.
33. Bengie Molina (35) – Prev. #16 – Molina’s great start didn’t last long, and he currently has a .281 OBP and a 708 OPS that world rank as his worst since 2002. He’s contributed 18 homers and 75 RBI anyway, as the Giants have kept him in the cleanup spot through thick and, mostly, thin. That’s not going to fool a lot of outside suitors, though. Perhaps his market will even diminish to the point at which the Giants could re-sign him to a one-year deal. They’re not going to want to block Buster Posey beyond 2010, but Molina seemed to be in line to get a two- or three-year contract elsewhere.
32. Brett Myers (29) – Prev. #15 – It looks like Myers may well have hurt his cause by rushing back from hip surgery in a bid to help the Phillies this month and in October. He returned with diminished velocity, and now he’s sidelined again with a strained lat. Teams will surely appreciate his competitiveness, but even before the hip problems, Myers wasn’t showing the same stuff that helped him fan 397 batters in 413 1/3 innings between 2005 and ’06. He made it known in 2007 that he preferred relieving to starting, and it’s entirely possible that he will shop himself as a closer this winter. He might opt to take a one-year deal and go back on the market next year.
31. Doug Davis (34) – Prev. #38 – Davis is a hard guy to trust because of his tendency to work outside of the strike zone and rack up big pitch counts in the early innings, but he’s a durable left-hander who knows exactly what works for him on the mound. He’s never had a significant arm problem as a major leaguer, and he’s on his way to posting an ERA in the low-4.00s for the third straight season. That probably won’t excite the large-market teams at all, but several mid-market teams could use an average lefty they know they can count on to make 33 starts.
30. Placido Polanco (34) – Prev. #31 – Polanco, who is currently hitting .283/.329/.404, figures to finish the season his worst average and OBP since 2002, if not 1999, but he has reached double figures in homers for the first time since 2004 and driven in a career-high 68 runs. While he’s typically missed 20-30 games a season throughout his career, he should play in 150 games this year for the time. It’s a rather surprising turn of events, given that Polanco has reached the age at which second basemen tend to break down. His defense remains above average, so it looks like he can be counted on as a starter for at least a two more years.
29. Nick Johnson (31) – Prev. #34 – His power hasn’t come back after last year’s torn wrist tendon, but Johnson has been a very good first baseman while hitting .291/.420/.407. He’s also suffered just one injury, that being a strained hamstring which sidelined him for 2 1/2 weeks last month. Time will tell if it’s good enough to get him a three-year deal this winter. He still might regain some power, and even if he doesn’t, his outstanding on-base skills aren’t likely to go away anytime soon. Unfortunately for him, the teams that most appreciate OBP probably won’t be looking for first basemen this winter.
28. Mike Gonzalez (31) – Prev. #35 – Gonzalez didn’t lose his closer’s gig in Atlanta so much as he was simply overtaken by Rafael Soriano. He has a 2.60 ERA, he’s struck out 84 and he’s blown away his previous career high in innings of 54. He’s currently at 69 1/3. He has been charged with seven blown saves, but four of those came in his current setup role and since he was usually charged with just a run in those games, the Braves went on to win five of them. No, it’s durability far more than performance that will count against Gonzalez this winter. He’ll probably get a nice three-year deal anyway, but it won’t be at Jose Valverde money.
27. Jermaine Dye* (36) – Prev. #23 – Dye’s season turned sour in a big hurry. After hitting .302/.375/.567 with 20 homers in the first half, he’s batted just .168/.276/.260 with five homers in 196 at-bats since the break. His $12 million option seemed very reasonable a couple of months ago, but the White Sox are all set to buy him out for $1 million now. While Dye isn’t finished as a regular, he’s at an age now at which he’s no longer a very good investment on multiyear deals. Someone will probably give him a two-year contract anyway.
26. Jason Marquis (31) – Prev. #52 – Even though Marquis was five games over .500 in 61 starts with the team, the Cubs wanted nothing more to do with him as he entered the final season of his three-year deal with the team. They paid the Rockies to take him, and Marquis has proceeded to go 15-11 with a 3.84 ERA, boosting his stock higher than it’s been in five years. It’d be foolish to count on him being so effective again next year, but he’s still rather young and very durable. He’s in line for another three-year contract, likely at more than the $21 million he’s making now.
25. Brandon Webb* (30) – Prev. #22 – The scenario that led to him being ranked here back in May has come to pass exactly: obviously, if Webb finished the season healthy, his $8.5 million option was a no-brainer. But if he did end up needing shoulder surgery he could be in play, not as an elite free agent, but still as a pretty desirable property. Since Webb’s surgery turned up no rotator cuff or labrum tears, the Diamondbacks would be foolish to buy him out for $2 million. However, that’s exactly what some have suggested they’ll do. I think they’ll relent and pick up the option, because if they don’t, the Yankees, Red Sox and others in position to offer complicated-but-lucrative incentive-laden deals will do so.
24. Marco Scutaro (34) – Prev. #61 – Scutaro’s big breakthrough came at age 33, and while he’s been a fine defensive shortstop this year, there’s just no telling how long he’ll last as solid option at the position. There is reason to believe that he’ll be a useful leadoff man for a couple of more years, even if his current .379 OBP is 50 points higher than his previous career mark. His inflated power numbers seem less likely to carry over to 2010. Since he’s undeniably the best 2010 option at shortstop available in free agency, he’s going to land a nice contract. He may, however, fade back into a utility role before his next contract comes to an end.
23. Rafael Soriano (30) – Prev. #58 – Wearing down from a heavier workload than he’s ever experienced before, Soriano has seen his ERA jump from 1.48 before the break to 5.74 afterwards. It’s still good to see the injury-prone right-hander up to 69 1/3 innings for the season, but he’d likely have been even more valuable to the Braves if kept on a 65-inning pace. One of the game’s most dominant pitchers, Soriano has fanned 92 batters. His .202 average against is right at his career mark, and his 1.08 WHIP is only slightly above. Because he’s had so many injury issues, it’d be smarter to overpay Soriano for two years than to go to three or four years to get him. The Braves might be able to keep either he or Gonzalez, but probably not both.
22. Mark DeRosa (35) – Prev. #26 – Incredibly, DeRosa’s torn wrist tendon sheath hasn’t done anything to his power stroke. He’s set a new career high with 23 homers, surpassing his 2008 total of 21. Before that, he had just 48 career homers in 2,145 at-bats. Especially because of his versatility, DeRosa will be an extremely interesting case this winter. He’s no longer much of a second baseman, but not everyone sees it that way. Other teams will look at him as a third baseman or a corner outfielder. He turns 35 next spring, but he’s a far better player now than he was five years ago. He could be in line for about $24 million over three years.
21. Mike Cameron (37) – Prev. #28 – Still going remarkably strong at age 36, Cameron likely ranks as the game’s most underrated player of the last 10 years. He’s played the vast majority of his career in poor ballparks for hitters, yet he’s always finishing with OPSs around 800 and playing excellent defense. Maybe he’s no longer one of the game’s five best defensive center fielders, but he still comfortably ranks in the top half of the league. He’ll probably get about $20 million for two years and be worth every penny.

Chicago woman pledges money to a domestic violence charity for each Aroldis Chapman save

CHICAGO, IL - JULY 28:  Aroldis Chapman #54 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the 9th inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 28, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs defeated the White Sox 3-1.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
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Though never charged with a crime, Aroldis Chapman was involved in a domestic violence incident that involved the intimidation of his girlfriend. He allegedly smashed a window of a car in his garage and then fired a gun, sending his girlfriend cowering into the bushes. He admitted to that much anyway, saying he used bad judgment, particularly with the gun, and apologized as he accepted his suspension from Major League Baseball.

But though he apologized, Chapman has declined to make any efforts to combat or to raise awareness of domestic violence. He is not required to do so, of course, but his peculiar dismissal of the topic in the press conference introducing him as a Chicago Cub the other day continues to make many uneasy with rooting for a team which employs him, even if he makes them better and even if his talent is undeniable.

One such person is Cubs fan Caitlin Swieca. She decided to do something about it, however, and has found a way to at least begin to make Chapman’s presence on her favorite team at least a little less uncomfortable:

Swieca selected the Domestic Violence Legal Council of Chicago, which provides free legal services to victims of domestic violence. Chapman got his first save last night and her first pledge was made. Many others have taken her example as her pledge has been publicized. If you’re interested in getting involved, she has provided some additional domestic violence charities in the Chicago area:

If a young woman who is, presumably, not making $11.325 million this year can make such an effort, I wonder if Aroldis Chapman might see clear to do so too.

The names and teams to watch between now and Monday’s trade deadline

ST. LOUIS, MO - JULY 3: Jonathan Lucroy #20 of the Milwaukee Brewers looks to the dugout during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth inning at Busch Stadium on July 3, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
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We already saw a big deal go down today, with the Padres trading Andrew Cashner to the Marlins. Between now and Monday afternoon, however, there will be many, many more. Keeping track of them is not always easy, but we can contain the chaos a little bit by ticking off the big names with the most heat around them.

Here, as of this morning, are the most significant players with rumors attached:

Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers

Linked to: Mets, Red Sox, Indians and Rangers
Likelihood of being traded: Seems highly likely. We’ve seen no reports saying the Brewers truly plan on keeping him.
Most likely destination: Beats us, though the Red Sox have the most to trade from and the GM with the history of the boldest moves. The Indians may be the most desperate for catching, however.

Chris Sale, White Sox

Linked to: Dodgers, Yankees and Braves. Rangers could certainly use him. Obviously, tons of teams would love to have him.
Likelihood of being traded: Less than 50-50, but certainly not zero. Sale’s recent uniform shredding antics and his clashes with the front office are frequently cited, but the real calculus here is whether the White Sox honestly think they can contend while Sale is still under team control (he has club options which keep in Chicago through 2019). Even if he was a model citizen, there are just as many good arguments for dealing him as there are for keeping him, mostly surrounding his undeniable status as one of the game’s top starters and his team-friendly deal for that ace performance. That combination equals a heavy package of prospects in return. If we ran the Sox we’d probably deal him, with the recent controversies as a cover for what is really an admission that, nope, we’re just not a good enough team to compete and, yep, we could get a king’s ransom for him.
Most likely destination: The Dodgers make all kinds of sense. They have young pitching which can help the White Sox win later and can deal it to get Sale who can help them win now.

Andrew Miller, Yankees

Linked to: Rangers, Nationals and Indians, all of whom need bullpen help.
Likelihood of being traded: Low to moderate. He’s under team control through next year and The Yankees like to talk about they don’t rebuild, they just reload. After seeing the haul they got for a rental of Arolids Chapman, however, it may be hard to say no to the sort of package a club may offer for Miller.
Most likely destination: The Nationals have had several scares late in games lately. If they can get over their tendency to hoard prospects rather than truly go for it, they could probably get a deal done.

Jay Bruce, Reds

Linked to: Mariners more than anyone. Indians and Rangers have been mentioned.
Likelihood of being traded:  Almost certain. The Reds are gonna be bad for a while and the often uneven Bruce is enjoying his best year. Time to strike while the iron is hot.
Most likely destination: The rumors about Bruce fall into two categories: legitimate stuff about the Mariners’ interest and general noise which sounds a lot like the Reds trying to pretend there are more teams interested in Bruce than there really are in order to get the Mariners to raise their price. Anything can happen, of course, and one should not bluff unless one is willing to carry through with what one is threatening, but I still think Bruce is a Mariner by Monday evening.

Chris Archer, Rays

Linked to: Dodgers, but no one else super seriously.
Likelihood of being traded:  Seems low. The Rays will certainly entertain offers, but Archer’s value is lower than expected during this subpar year for him and he’s under team control for a really long time. If you overwhelm the Rays they’ll deal him, but it will take a big, big offer.
Most likely destination: We think it’s more likely that he’s still a Ray next week, but if he goes anyplace it’ll likely be Los Angeles if they cannot pry Sale loose from the White Sox.

Wade Davis, Royals

Linked to: Dodgers
Likelihood of being traded:  Less than 50% in our view. The Royals may have been intrigued by the Chapman deal with the Cubs, but they are rumored to want to package Davis with teammate Ian Kennedy in a salary dump situation, suggesting that they’re less interested in maximizing the return for Davis than they are in dumping Kennedy’s salary. It’s hard to see why someone like the Dodgers, who are apparently enamored with Davis, would want to do that. It suggests that the Royals are just sort of messin’ around.
Most likely destination: He’ll probably still be a Royal unless the Dodgers make a strong take-it-or-leave-it offer for a standalone Davis deal.

Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies

Linked to: No one specifically yet, but obviously tons of teams want starting pitching. The Rangers, Orioles and maybe the Giants are all teams which have been mentioned in passing.
Likelihood of being traded:  50/50, driven by the Phillies allegedly high asking price — Jayson Stark has reported that they want a top, top prospect for a Hellickson rental — and driven by the fact that the Phillies could just wait until November, give him a qualifying offer and take a pick for him.
Most likely destination: Hard to say, but he’s going to look a lot more attractive to teams like the Rangers the harder it is for them to get one of the top line guys.

Rich Hill, Athletics

Linked to: Same suspects as Hellicskson and the other starters.
Likelihood of being traded: High. It’s the A’s, they make deals.
Most likely destination: No clue. He’s no one’s top choice, but everyone is going to get more desperate between now and Monday afternoon.

OTHERS:

  • Edinson Volquez of the Royals, Matt Shoemaker of the Angels and Julio Teheran of the Braves are mentioned as pitching targets, though it’s not at all certain those clubs are inclined to make a deal. This is especially true of the Braves who did quite well trading starting pitching last winter and may wish to wait until the offseason once again;
  • Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran are the top non-Lucroy/Bruce bats which have been mentioned. The Cubs and Orioles have been mentioned as possible suitors for Reddick. Gonzalez hasn’t been linked to any specific teams strongly, though he has reportedly asked to be traded. The Rockies winning more lately may make them hesitant to deal him, however. The Yankees still haven’t signaled that they’re waving the white flag. Trading Beltran means they’re waving the white flag.
  • Any reliever not pitching for a contending team is fair game. More relievers will likely change teams than anyone. So many that we’ll lose track of ’em.

We’d love to be more specific than that, but this is our eighth year of tracking the trade deadline at HardballTalk. That experience has taught us to expect the unexpected.