Daily Dose: Back injury shuts down Morneau

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Justin Morneau captured the AL MVP in 2006 largely because of the perception that he carried the Twins down the stretch, but for the most part his career has been filled with strong starts and poor finishes. In seven seasons Morneau has batted .297 and slugged .543 in April, May, June, and July compared to just .250 and .429 in August and September, and this year he’s gone 21-for-121 (.174) since August 1.
For once there’s an explanation for his slump, as the Twins announced Monday that Morneau will miss the rest of the year with a stress fracture in his back. Minnesota’s playoff hopes have already faded, so the good news is that the injury doesn’t require surgery and he should be able to resume baseball activities in three months. Michael Cuddyer will play first base, with Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young gaining value.
While the Twins unraveling around Joe Mauer could cost him a much more deserved MVP than Morneau’s in 2006, here are some other notes from around baseball …


* Coming into the year Carlos Marmol was one of my favorite breakout picks, but Lou Piniella going with Kevin Gregg at closer ruined those plans. Piniella finally switched from Gregg to Marmol last month and since then he’s converted nine saves in a row with 18 strikeouts in 12 innings, which was enough for the Cubs skipper to announce Monday that Marmol will have the job all to himself in 2010. Count on that breakout.
* Brian Fuentes remains the Angels’ closer despite a 5.60 second-half ERA, but Mike Scioscia said Monday that rookie Kevin Jepsen could be given save chances down the stretch in “advantageous” matchups. That likely means mixing and matching the left-handed Fuentes and right-handed Jepsen, who has a 2.61 ERA and 39/9 K/BB ratio in 41.1 innings since being called back up from Triple-A in mid-June.
* Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Diamondbacks are not planning to exercise next year’s $8.5 million team option on injured ace Brandon Webb, who had shoulder surgery last month after being sidelined since Opening Day. Arizona will no doubt try to re-sign Webb to an incentive-laden deal, but if he hits the open market it could be tough to fight off bids from high-payroll teams willing to take a gamble.
* I’m a huge fan of WhatIfSports.com’s excellent Hardball Dynasty game, which is an incredibly detailed and time-consuming simulation of running a fictional organization from rookie-ball to the majors. One of my private leagues is starting a new season this week and we have a couple franchise openings, so if you have some experience playing Hardball Dynasty and want to join us, drop me an e-mail with your details.
AL Quick Hits: Joe Mauer went 3-for-3 with a walk Monday and is hitting .371, giving him an 18-point lead over Ichiro Suzuki for his third batting title in four years … Brett Tomko hurled a complete-game shutout Monday and has somehow gone 4-1 with a 2.94 ERA since joining the A’s … Joe Crede (back) is not expected to play again this year and is probably finished in Minnesota … Brian Matusz has been shut down after logging 157.2 innings between the majors and minors, with Mark Hendrickson taking his rotation spot … Nate Robertson and Armando Galarraga have been relegated to the Tigers’ bullpen, so Eddie Bonine will stay in the rotation down the stretch … Reid Brignac went 4-for-4 with a homer and two doubles Monday, raising his OPS by 150 points … Jeremy Sowers threw seven scoreless innings Monday before the bullpen turned a 3-0 lead into a 6-3 loss … Vince Mazzaro has been shut down for the year because of shoulder problems.
NL Quick Hits: Out since mid-July with a fractured wrist, Jay Bruce returned from the disabled list Monday after hitting .212 on a 10-game rehab assignment … Clayton Kershaw (shoulder) remains at least 10 days from seeing game action … J.A. Happ (oblique) tossed a bullpen session Monday and hopes to rejoin the rotation later this week … Derrek Lee homered Monday for the seventh time in 10 games … Tony La Russa indicated Monday that the Cardinals may skip Kyle Lohse’s scheduled turn in the rotation this weekend … Jose Valverde was not with the Astros’ on their road trip Monday thanks to a 101-degree fever … Bronson Arroyo turned in seven innings of one-run ball Monday for his 10th straight Quality Start … Huston Street (biceps) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, but is unlikely to immediately resume closing once he returns … Randy Johnson (shoulder) tossed a 53-pitch simulated game Monday with an eye toward joining the Giants’ bullpen.

Which current players are Cooperstown bound?

Miguel Cabrera
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With the election of Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriguez and with the Hall of Fame press conferences over, let’s wrap up Hall of Fame week with a look at today’s game and see if we can’t figure out who among current big leaguers are likely to get the call to Cooperstown one day.

The No-Brainers

I think it’s a 100% lock that, absent their being identified as international terrorist masterminds, the following guys are already in:

Albert Pujols — He’ll break 600 homers this season, is a three-time MVP, has a couple of World Series rings and will be above 3,000 hits before he’s done. He could’ve been hit by a bus five years ago and still would be a lock.

Ichiro Suzuki — Over 3,000 hits in this country, over 4,000 hits between here and Japan, with some added spice due to him breaking people of notion that only Japanese pitchers, and not hitters, could be effective in Major League Baseball. A first ballot guy, just like Pujols.

Miguel Cabrera — He has two MVPs, a Triple Crown and is approaching 500 homers and 3,000 hits already despite still being only 33 years-old. He may be beginning to descend from his career peak, but there is no reason at all to think that he doesn’t have several years of top performance left. He, like Pujols and Ichiro are already in.

Adrian Beltre — As recently as a couple of years ago I was convinced that voters would fail to appreciate his greatness, but something has changed recently in the way he is discussed by the baseball commentariat. His defense has been spectacular and has remained so even as he approaches 40 and, unlike what may have been the case a decade ago, it is widely appreciated. He’ll pass 3,000 hits this year.

Yadier Molina — I would’ve put him in the next lower category before Wednesday, but Ivan Rodriguez’s first ballot election shows that defense behind the plate carries more weight with the electorate than many considered it to. There’s also the fact that Molina has always been talked about as a Hall of Famer and has the respect of everyone he’s ever played with, often being cited as the heart and soul of the successful Cardinals teams of the past decade and change. Voters love that and that’ll do a lot to make up for the lack of typical Hall of Fame offensive numbers.

Justin Verlander — An MVP/Cy Young combo and a couple of other years when he could’ve easily won the Cy Young set Verlander apart, especially if his rebound 2016 presages a few more years of excellence. Assuming a normal decline, he’ll top 3,000 strikeouts will be between 225-250 wins one thinks. Wherever he ends up on those numbers, though, there is going to be — heck, there has to be — a rethinking of what a Hall of Fame starting pitcher looks like by the voters in the coming years. Guys like Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling are getting overlooked because they don’t have 300 wins and a boatload of complete games, with voters not yet grokking that the game has changed. By the time Verlander is on the ballot, I suspect that they will have fully grokked it and that his case will be easier than it has been for some others who came before. The guy to watch as this dynamic unfolds: Roy Halladay, who hits the ballot in two years.

 

Probably In, But People Will Argue

Carlos Beltran — His career stock has improved as he’s continued to an effective hitter late in his career, but I feel like he may not yet be fully appreciated by many due to the lack of hardware and rings and things. Overall, however, his numbers are comparable to several Hall of Famers. One thing a lot of people overlook in Hall of Fame careers is just how much playing for one team — which was once the norm due to the Reserve Clause — colors the narrative of a player’s case. Beltran is Billy Williams, right? Except without the entire career with the Cubs and the adoration of those fans to speak for him. As we’ve seen with Tim Raines, having someone stump for a guy is important. Which team’s fan base stumps for Beltran?

 

Probably NOT in, But People Will Stump For Them

Chase Utley — I feel like he’s just short, though that’s mostly due to him getting a late start in his career and not compiling some of the counting stats voters like to see. Was definitely the best second baseman around for a number of years and has the rate stats and defensive reputation. A good case can be made for him. But the same is true of Larry Walker, Alan Trammell and a number of other guys who haven’t gotten the Hall of Fame love.

Jimmy Rollins — Utley’s former teammate may have an opposite case: a lot of good counting stats based on being a regular at 21, but he has somewhat lackluster rate stats and secondary stats for a Hall of Famer.

Joe Mauer — If he had stuck at catcher he’d have a stronger case — and if he weren’t so unfairly denigrated by Twins fans and those who cover them his existing case would be more appreciated — but the odd arc of his career and setbacks due to concussions will likely make him fall short. There’s a very interesting statistical/historical case to be made for Mauer, but it’s not one that, barring an unexpected late career offensive renaissance, will get much of a hearing I suppose.

 

On the way, but need to pad their resumes

Clayton Kershaw — The only thing keeping him out of the “already in” group is the fact that he has only played for nine seasons and you have to have ten in order to be eligible. Yes, even after 10 his career will be super short, but what he has done in his nine seasons — three Cy Youngs and three other top-5 Cy Young finishes, four ERA crowns and three strikeout crowns, — has been pretty outstanding. I suppose that if he suddenly turned into a tomato can and spent a decade with ERAs in the 5s people would rethink him, but the smart money has him cruising in based on his first decade alone, padded with even merely good later years. And there’s no reason to think that his next couple of years will be merely good.

Robinson Cano — Only 12 seasons under his belt but already north of 2,200 hits and, barring serious injury, will likely finish his career at or near the top of most offensive categories for second basemen. He plays every dang day. Multiple All-Star selections and a lot of MVP votes. Barring a Dale Murphy-style falloff, I think he makes it.

Dustin Pedroia — Likely has it on peak performance already — the Rookie of the Year, the MVP, a couple of World Series rings for which he is given a large amount of credit — but he has only played 11 seasons, which is generally too short for Hall of Famers not named Koufax. Second baseman have historically fallen off younger than players at other positions, but if Pedroia, like Cano, avoids that and has a standard career decline, he’s Cooperstown bound.

Buster Posey — There are only eight years under Buster’s belt, but they’ve been great years. Someone besides Bruce Bochy will get credit for the Giants’ three World Series rings, and it’ll likely be Posey. That is, if his down 2016 season isn’t the beginning of an unexpectedly sharp falloff.

Mike Trout — The shortest tenure of anyone on this list, but the guy has already put together a Hall of Fame peak by the age of 25 and only needs to gain eligibility. If he falls off to merely very good starting now he’ll have already made it. WAR is a counting stat which accumulates over a career. By the time 2017 is over, he will likely have passed Hall of Famers Tony Lazzeri, Kirby Puckett, Orlando Cepeda, Larry Doby, Nellie Fox, Bobby Doerr, Mickey Cochrane and Tony Perez. In less than seven full seasons.

UPDATE: Joey Votto — I forgot him when I first published this. Which, I dunno, was maybe some weird unconscious impulse I had which channels what I think voters will do. We’ve come a long way in appreciating on-base ability and rate stats and eschewing RBIs and things when it comes to evaluating hitters, but I feel like, to some, Votto is an extreme case here. He shouldn’t be — he’s a career .313 hitter and has slugged to the tune of .536 — but the negative narrative that has been written by some in the media that Votto is too timid a hitter or that his taking walks somehow has hurt the Reds has had some annoying staying power. All of that said: he’s only got ten years in. If he continues doing what he’s doing, he’ll be a strong Hall candidate. If he has even one or two more years where he shuts the naysayers up and, say, finishes first or second in the MVP voting, he’ll be in. Alternatively: if the Reds ever trade him to a contender and people see how valuable his production is in a lineup with even a modicum of support, that narrative changes immediately.

Others

Ian Kinsler — Dustin Pedroia without the MVP and the rings? I suppose a lot of people would take issue with that, but they’re a lot more similar than you may suspect. Kinsler has a higher bWAR in the same number of seasons as Pedroia, even if he doesn’t have the same level of fame.

Max Scherzer — If he can keep up the peak he’s established over the past few seasons for a bit longer, or if he can show remarkable longevity, he could possibly make up for blooming a bit late.

Zach Greinke — Could go either way. We’ve likely already seen his best seasons — and his two best were, uncharacteristically for a Hall of Famer, several years apart — but if he has several more good ones, he’s in the conversation.

Felix Hernandez — I feel like 2017 will be key. Two years ago I’d have said he was well on his way, but two average seasons in a row at ages 29 and 30 could be the precursor to a less-than-Hall-of-Fame second act.

There are likewise several players who have begun careers which look a lot like guys who eventually made the Hall of Fame — Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Sale, Jose Altuve, Manny Machado, etc. etc. — but for the most part they’re just too early in the game to project. Let’s hold off on them for a few years, shall we?

I feel pretty good about this list thus far, however. What say you?

Josh Johnson retires from baseball

PEORIA, AZ - FEBRUARY 21: Josh Johnson #55 of the San Diego Padres poses during Picture Day on February 21, 2014 at the Peoria Sports Complex in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Mike McGinnis/Getty Images)
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Oft-injured pitcher Josh Johnson is retiring from baseball, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick is reporting.

Johnson, 32, hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2013. The right-hander underwent his third Tommy John surgery in September 2015 but wasn’t able to bounce back.

Johnson spent most of his career with the Marlins, but also pitched for the Blue Jays in the big leagues, as well as the Padres in the minors. He retires with a career 3.40 ERA, 915 strikeouts across 998 innings in the majors, and two All-Star nominations. Johnson led the National League with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, finishing fifth in NL Cy Young Award balloting. One wonders what he could have accomplished if he was able to stay healthy.