What went wrong: Cleveland Indians

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The following is the first in a series profiling of some of 2009’s biggest disappointments.

Cleveland Indians



Record: 59-76 (4th in AL Central)



How It Happened:



With
the one of the top all-around talents in the game in Grady Sizemore,
the defending American League Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee, a
fully-healthy Victor Martinez, and the additions of a valuable
utilityman in Mark DeRosa and a capable closer in Kerry Wood, it
appeared as though the stars were aligned for the Indians to compete in
2009, but they have suffered through a perfect storm of misfortune.




Despite a return to form by Martinez, the offense simply failed to
take off. Sizemore, who has played in at least 157 games every year
since 2005, was limited to 106 games due to inflammation in his left
elbow. Helped by a strong August, Sizemore managed a .248/.343/.445
line to go along with 18 homers, 64 RBI and 13 stolen bases. The
Indians finally shut him down on Friday, with a pair of surgeries on
the docket in the coming days. He should be ready for the start of the
2010 season.




After consecutive 20-homer seasons, Jhonny Peralta is batting
.275/.335/.412 with just 11 homers and 72 RBI. An April injury to his
left elbow effectively zapped his power output in what should have been
his age-27 breakout year. It doesn’t help that manager Eric Wedge has
been unable to lean on Travis Hafner’s sore shoulders, either. Despite
a .272/.358/.487 line to go along with 14 homers and 40 RBI and a .844
OPS (highest since 2006), Pronk can’t play more than back-to-back
games, thus he only has 265 at-bats this season. And while Franklin
Gutierrez is blossoming into a star in Seattle, Luis Valbuena has been
underwhelming at second base.




While the offense has been inconsistent, the pitching has been even
worse, putting up a 4.97 staff ERA (third worst in the majors),
including a 5.09 ERA for their starters (fourth worst) and a 4.78 ERA
in their revolving-door bullpen (again, third worst). Wood imploded in
the first-half, compiling a 5.28 ERA and four blown saves while serving
up six bombs in just 30 2/3 innings. Fausto Carmona was demoted on June
5 after pitching to a miserable 7.42 ERA and 36/41 K/BB ratio in 60 2/3
innings. Anthony Reyes was expected to be the No. 4 starter behind Carl
Pavano, but he underwent elbow surgery in May and will likely never see
a mound with the Tribe again. And after missing the second half of the
2008 season with Tommy John surgery, Jake Westbrook hasn’t thrown a
pitch in the big leagues this season. He was shut down after
complaining of elbow soreness during a rehab stint in August.




Add it all up and the Indians were 14 games out of first place at the All-Star break.



Silver Linings:



– Shin-Soo
Choo continues to be one of the game’s most underrated players, batting
.302/.396/.476 with 14 home runs, 74 RBI, 33 doubles and 18 stolen
bases. The 27-year-old South Korean is about league average against
lefties (.426 career slugging percentage), but he is a steady weapon
against right-handers (.505 slugging percentage). Throw in his cannon
from right field you have a very capable partner alongside Sizemore for
years to come.




– Asdrubal Cabrera missed nearly a month with a sprained left
shoulder, but it hasn’t derailed his breakthrough season. The
23-year-old shortstop is batting .310/.362/.438 with five home runs, 56
RBI, 16 stolen bases and 71 runs scored in 110 games. With more speed
than expected (he had just 53 stolen bases over 430 games in the
minors) and an adequate glove, Cabrera is a fine building block for the
future.




– While the Indians traded away Lee, Martinez, Mark DeRosa, Ben
Francisco and Ryan Garko, they have managed to acquire an impressive
haul of prospects including RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Chris Perez, RHP
Jess Todd, LHP Nick Hagadone, RHP Jason Knapp, SS Jason Donald, C Lou
Marson and LHP Scott Barnes, all ranked in their team’s top ten
prospects, according to Baseball America.




Sometimes it’s tough to bite the bullet and rebuild, but general
manager Mark Shapiro has done it in a very creative and savvy way,
namely taking advantage of a situation in which Blue Jays general
manager J.P. Ricciardi was asking the moon for Roy Halladay. The trades
weren’t popular, especially with rumors of Knapp being damaged goods,
but in truth, Shapiro has laid a groundwork for contention in the long
run.




Looking ahead:



– The Indians are expected to evaluate Wedge
and his staff in the weeks to come. Many believe a managerial change is
inevitable given the high expectations of the past two seasons. Wedge
has guided the Indians to a 555-551 record over six seasons.




– The trades of Martinez and Garko will finally allow young stud Matt
LaPorta (51 homers and .944 OPS over 224 games in the minors) to get a
full season under his belt in 2010.





– The Indians already have roughly $50 million in contact commitments for
2010 including $11.5 million for Hafner, $11 million for Westbrook and
$10.5 million for Wood, contracts that will be very tough, if not
impossible to move. In turn, they won’t have much payroll flexibility
headed into 2010. They’ll sink or swim with an infusion of youth.

What’s on Tap: Previewing Thursday’s action

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 18:  Manny Machado #13 of the Baltimore Orioles celbrates hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning during a baseball game against the against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 18, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Orioles won 2-1.  (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
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With each division now spoken for, our attention now turns to the Wild Card races. The Blue Jays hold a one-game lead over the Orioles for the first Wild Card slot in the American League while the Orioles have a one-game lead over the Tigers for the second slot. The Jays and O’s will do battle on Thursday night and each of the four other teams alive in the AL Wild Card race are rooting for the Jays to win. The Yankees and Astros can both be eliminated from Wild Card contention if the Orioles win one more game or if they each lose one more game. The Mariners are also active in the Wild Card hunt, currently two games behind the Orioles.

Over in the National League, the Giants have a one-game lead over the Cardinals for the second Wild Card slot. The Giants get to play the Rockies while the Cardinals face the lowly Reds. The Mets, who currently own the first Wild Card slot, have the night off.

Asterisks denote that the game is relevant to the Wild Card.

The rest of Thursday’s action…

*Boston Red Sox (Henry Owens) @ New York Yankees (CC Sabathia), 7:05 PM EDT

Chicago Cubs (Rob Zastryzny) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Ivan Nova), 7:05 PM EDT

*Baltimore Orioles (Ubaldo Jimenez) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman), 7:07 PM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies (Jeremy Hellickson) @ Atlanta Braves (Josh Collmenter), 7:10 PM EDT

*Cincinnati Reds (Dan Straily) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Alex Reyes), 7:15 PM EDT

Minnesota Twins (Kyle Gibson) @ Kansas City Royals (Danny Duffy), 7:15 PM EDT

Tampa Bay Rays (Chris Archer) @ Chicago White Sox (Jose Quintana), 8:10 PM EDT

Los Angeles Dodgers (Julio Urias) @ San Diego Padres (Christian Friedrich), 9:10 PM EDT

*Oakland Athletics (Kendall Graveman) @ Seattle Mariners (Ariel Miranda), 10:10 PM EDT

*Colorado Rockies (Jon Gray) @ San Francisco Giants (Johnny Cueto), 10:15 PM EDT

Who should win the MVP Awards? Who will?

CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 20:  Kris Bryant #17 of the Chicago Cubs bats during the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on September 20, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 4-3. (Photo by John Konstantaras/Getty Images)
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With the regular season ending on Sunday and most of the playoff spots locked up, there’s really only one big thing left to argue about: postseason awards. So let’s spend some time looking at who should win each of the four major awards and who will win them. Which are often totally different things. First up: The MVP Awards. 

Who should win the AL MVP Award? 

We at HBT have tended to lean toward the idea that the best player should win the MVP Award, regardless of whether his team wins or not. It’s not an iron-clad thing, of course. In the past I’ve supported some more narrative-driven MVP candidates and, more importantly, deciding who is “the best player” in an objective sense is not always a cut-and-dried endeavor. Defense is an inexact science. Players often have competing apples and oranges arguments for their candidacies.

If you look at “best overall player” this year, however, it’s hard to say that Mike Trout and his line of .318/.441/.556 with 29 homers and his usual solid-to-outstanding center field defense is not that guy. Yes, his team stinks, and no, his 2016 season isn’t head and shoulders above any number of his other excellent seasons, making him a less-than-sexy choice in a lot of ways. But it’s hard to stand head and shoulders above uniform excellence and no matter what you think of stuff like WAR and all that goes into it, Trout has a 1.5 WAR lead over Mookie Betts according to FanGraphs and 1.3 according to Baseball Reference. It’s a pretty significant separation, especially when you realize that, dang, Betts is having a whale of a season himself (.320/.365/.538).

Still, Trout isn’t a unanimous pick even with the HBT team, which has it this way:

Craig: Trout
Bill: Trout
Ashley: Betts

Who will win the AL MVP Award?

There has been a lot of talk about Betts and his teammate, David Ortiz, splitting the vote, as it were. Maybe that was a thing that happened more often back in the day when narrative-driven awards were more common, but I think today’s BBWAA voters are way more savvy than that. I think that Ortiz will get some votes thrown his way by virtue of his outstanding offensive season (.316/.401/.622, 37 HR, 124 RBI) and the storybook ending to his career, but I think Betts will ultimately carry the day with the better overall and all-around performance. MVP PREDICTION: MOOKIE BETTS.

Who should win the NL MVP Award?

There are a lot of guys putting up years that, under different circumstances, would be MVP worthy. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy, Joey Votto and Corey Seager are all having outstanding campaigns. Most of them are bunched up as far as WAR goes, more so with Baseball-Reference.com’s version, a little less so with FanGraphs. Bryant leads both versions and is putting up outstanding offensive numbers. Murphy, Freeman and Votto are hitting a tad better than him depending on how you measure it, but have less defensive value. Seager’s mix of defense and offense may be closer to what Bryant is doing, although Arenado might have something to say about that. There are a lot of good choices.

Bryant is the best choice, however. His hitting — .293/.387/.560, 39 HR, 101 RBI — is better than the other all-around candidates and his defensive versatility — he’s played all three outfield positions as well as his usual third base — sets him apart. He’s been the best player in the NL this year.

Craig: Bryant
Bill: Bryant
Ashley:Bryant

Who will win the NL MVP Award?

This is one of those years where I suspect our views will match that of the voters. MVP PREDICTION: Bryant, possibly unanimously.