This is very exciting news, though the results are far from official.
As I’ve mentioned in this spot previously, I’m participating in Tom Tango’s Forecasters Challenge, which has 22 forecasters and projection systems playing out 1,000 runs of the season using teams of preranked players. I gave a rundown of what my teams looked like back in June.
I had just about given up on seeing an in-season update of how things were progressing, but Tom had the following to say Wednesday:
If the season were to end today, it would be a 2-man race between Rotoworld and John Eric Hanson. Together, they have 542 wins out of 1000 drafts! The other 20 combine to win less than these two. What a thrashing!
Many of the big names are taking part, so it’d be quite a thrill to come in first or even second. Looking at his draft run, I think Mr. Hanson may well have the edge, as the key players he’s relying on seem to be healthy and producing. It’s remarkable just how similar his rankings were to mine in some cases. We battled on many of the same players over the course of the 1,000 drafts.
Player – My team – Hanson – Total
Carlos Silva – 667 – 333 – 1,000
Brad Penny – 435 – 565 – 1,000
Brandon McCarthy – 311 – 689 – 1,000
Glen Perkins – 341 – 659 – 1,000
Pedro Martinez – 108 – 892 – 1,000
Tom Glavine – 16 – 984 – 1,000
Hank Blalock – 9 – 991 – 1,000
Brian Bannister – 1 – 999 – 1,000
Justin Upton – 630 – 368 – 998
Ian Snell – 513 – 465 – 978
Rick Ankiel – 387 – 582 – 969
Anibal Sanchez – 372 – 594 – 966
J.A. Happ – 263 – 700 – 963
Billy Butler – 210 – 711 – 921
Coco Crisp – 648 – 219 – 867
Tom Gorzelanny – 131 – 730 – 861
Robinson Cano – 50 – 766 – 816
Adam Jones – 522 – 234 – 756
Jorge De La Rosa – 76 – 658 – 734
Todd Helton – 430 – 225 – 655
Nick Markakis – 498 – 110 – 608
Alexei Ramirez – 84 – 462 – 546
B.J. Upton – 301 – 229 – 530
Carl Crawford – 346 – 96 – 442
With 22 teams drafting 25 players apiece, there’s no way we could have gone head to head like that so often strictly as a coincidence. All of those similarities are likely arising because Mr. Hanson borrowed from my playing time projections to complement his performance projections. Computers are a lot better at projecting OPS than at-bats, so those systems tend to use a mix of non-computer projections to account for playing time. That’s perfectly fine with me, if that’s all it is. Finishing first and having a hand in No. 2’s success would be pretty sweet.
From Jon Heyman of CBS Sports comes word that the Orioles “like” free agent starter Yovani Gallardo and “have reached out to him” to gauge his interest in coming to Baltimore and what that might cost.
Gallardo rejected a one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Rangers earlier this month and so his free agency is tied to draft pick compensation, but that shouldn’t hurt his bottom line all that much.
The 29-year-old right-hander posted a solid 3.42 ERA in 184 1/3 innings (33 starts) this past season for Texas and he pitched well in his one ALDS start.
Heyman reported a few weeks ago that the Diamondbacks are interested, and the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Dodgers were tied to him just ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.
David Price has expressed a desire to return to Toronto, where he finished out the 2015 season, but FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes Wednesday that the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency.”
The teams that should be considered serious suitors, per Rosenthal, are the Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Red Sox — all deep-pocketed teams looking to contend in 2016. Money is apparently the issue for the Blue Jays, who are currently owned by Rogers Communications.
Price registered an outstanding 2.45 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, and 225/47 K/BB ratio in 220 1/3 innings (32 starts) this past season between the Tigers and Jays, finishing second in the American League Cy Young Award race behind Dallas Keuchel of the Astros.
The 30-year-old left-hander is probably looking for a six- or seven-year contract worth more than $25 million per season. He is represented by agent Bo McKinnis.
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote three weeks ago that the Marlins were probably going to explore an extension this winter with second baseman Dee Gordon. And it sounds like those talks are underway.
Via beat writer Joe Frisaro of MLB.com:
As a guest on MLB Network’s “Hot Stove” show Wednesday morning, Gordon confirmed his camp has been in talks with the Marlins regarding a multiyear deal. A source told MLB.com that the discussions are preliminary and have just recently started.
“My agent is doing the talking,” Gordon said on the show. “They’re just keeping me in the loop. I think it’s going pretty well right now. We’ll see how that goes. I’m just playing the waiting game. We’re going to do the right thing.”
The 27-year-old carries three more seasons of salary arbitration, so there’s no real rush to get something done before next spring. Gordon carries quite a bit of leverage after posting a career-best .333/.359/.418 slash line in 145 games this past season for the Fish. He led all major leaguers in hits (205) and stolen bases (58).
Bud Norris has found a home for his attempt at a bounceback season, signing a one-year deal with the Braves. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com says it’s worth $2.5 million, which is a huge cut from his $8.8 million salary this year.
Norris had established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter from 2009-2014, but had a brutal 2015 season split between the Orioles and Padres with a 6.72 ERA in 83 innings and a late-season move to the bullpen.
In announcing the signing the Braves referred to Norris as a starting pitcher, so joining the rotation for a rebuilding team gives him a chance to get his career back on track with an eye on hitting the open market as a free agent again next offseason. And if he fares well, the Braves could use him to add a prospect or two at the trade deadline.