Has the 500-club been diminished?

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The conventional wisdom these days is that the 500 home-run club is not what it used to be.  Some have even suggested — not unreasonably, I’ll grant — that merely hitting 500 home runs is not the automatic ticket to Cooperstown it once was.  I mean, after all, 10 dudes have entered the 500-club in roughly the last decade.

But as Matt Carruth notes over at FanGraphs notes, this isn’t the first time a large number of guys entered that club in a short period of time. To wit, between September 13th, 1965 and September 13th, 1971 seven players hit number 500: Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Matthews, Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks, Harmon Killebrew, and Frank Robinson.  As Matt notes:

This era is largely being remembered for it lessening the importance of the 500 home run club. That is understandable in the sense that we now view most everything from the 1990s and 2000s with an air of suspicion and that the list of members did grow from 15 to its present 25 in just ten years. However, looking back to the 1965-71 period, does ten new members in ten years look much different than seven in six years?

Sure, there are differences. The guys who joined the 500 club between 1965 and 1971 were facing much, much more difficult conditions in which to hit than were the guys from the 1990s. The parks were bigger, the mounds were higher, and the strikezone was much larger in the 1960s than it was today.  And that’s before you even get into the PED issue.

But Matt’s observation does suggest, however, that in assessing the value of 500 home runs today, we have to do a little more work than to merely note, as some do, that the milestone is not all that special anymore, because there was a previous time when it wasn’t all that special too, relatively speaking.  The why’s of it all matter. 

Report: Orioles interested in Lance Lynn

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The Orioles singlehandedly kept the rumor mill churning this weekend. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the club is interested in making a play for free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, adding him to a list of potential candidates that also includes free agent righty Alex Cobb. The two are expected to command similar contracts in free agency, but Morosi notes that the Orioles may prefer Cobb based on his familiarity with the AL East.

Lynn, 30, is two years removed from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Despite missing the 2016 season, he bounced back with a respectable 11-8 record in 33 starts and complemented his efforts with a 3.43 ERA, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.4 SO/9 over 186 1/3 innings for the 2017 Cardinals. He lost several days with a blister on his pitching hand in early September, but managed to avoid any major injuries and can reasonably be expected to shoulder another heavy workload in 2018.

Lynn may not be the Orioles’ first choice to beef up their starting rotation, but there’s no doubt that he’ll be in high demand as one of very few viable starters on the market this winter. The veteran righty rejected his one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals on Thursday and will likely be seeking a multi-year contract, one that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch estimates around five years and $100+ million. If the Orioles are willing to bite that bullet, they’ll still need to compensate the Cardinals with their third pick in next year’s draft.