Trade analysis: Cubs land Grabow, Gorzelanny

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Cubs acquire LHP John Grabow and LHP Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates for RHP Kevin Hart, RHP Jose Ascanio and INF-OF Josh Harrison.
In Grabow, the Cubs get the lefty reliever they craved, but it will up to Lou Piniella to use him correctly. Grabow is no specialist, and he didn’t become a quality pitcher until the Pirates figured that out. Lefties have actually hit .270 off him in his career, compared to .254 for righties. His ERA is up this year, but that’s entirely due to a rough stretch in early May. He’s been rock solid for 2 1/2 months now, and he should be a fine sixth- and seventh-inning guy for the Cubs.
The Pirates soured on Gorzelanny a year ago and refused to give him another opportunity this year, even though he had a 2.48 ERA and an 85/30 K/BB ratio in 87 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis. He was actually up for a time in May, but it was to pitch in relief, even though he had never done that before. They didn’t even give him a few appearances in Triple-A to see how it would work out. It was a bizarre experiment, and he went right back down after allowing five runs in 8 2/3 innings. Since then, he had a 1.17 ERA in eight starts for Indianapolis. The Cubs figure to bring him to the majors as Hart’s replacement in the rotation, though that will only last until Ted Lilly returns. Perhaps he’ll be tried again as a reliever then.
Money isn’t a major issue in the deal. Grabow is making $2.3 million and will be a free agent at season’s end. He’ll likely be a Type B free agent, and the Cubs figure to offer him arbitration, allowing them to gain a supplemental first-round pick if he leaves. Because of all of the time Gorzelanny has spent in the minors, he still won’t be eligible for arbitration at season’s end, meaning the Cubs will control his rights for four more years.
Hart’s Cubs career was interesting, if nothing else. Upon debuting in Sept. 2007, he pitched so well that he claimed a spot on the postseason roster. That made him close to a lock for the 2008 roster and he earned his spot with a strong spring, only to struggle in April and spend most of the rest of the year in the minors. He seemed like a forgotten man in the system only a couple of months ago, yet injuries gave him another chance and he had gone 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in four starts since entering the rotation. He learned of the trade just a few minutes after beating the Astros today. I’m not sure the changeup is there to make him a quality starter for the long term, but he should be pretty useful, even if it’s just in middle relief. The Pirates will likely give him Virgil Vasquez’s spot in the rotation.
Ascanio was a reliever for almost his entire career until the Cubs tried him as a starter in Triple-A this year. He proved to be one of the PCL’s best starters early on, though his ERA faded to 3.16 before he was called up. He had a 3.52 ERA in 14 relief appearances for the Cubs. He has the pure stuff to close in the majors, but his command has always held him back. The Pirates should be happy if he turns into a useful seventh-inning guy.
Harrison was a sixth-round pick out of Cincinnati last year. He was hitting .327/.372/.464 with five homers and 26 steals in 373 at-bats for low Single-A Peoria and high-A Dayton. As a second baseman, he’d be interesting. The Cubs, though, had been using him more in left field and at third base lately. He’s not going to be a starting outfielder, and he’ll probably need to show he can handle infield chores if he’s going to make it as a utilityman.
I liked the Jack Wilson and the Freddy Sanchez deals, but the Pirates don’t seem to make out as well here. Besides giving up the one established major leaguer, their also parting with the player with the most upside in Gorzelanny. Hart fits into the same class as Ross Ohlendorf and Charlie Morton, leaving me wondering just how many No. 4 starters they think they’re going to need next year.

Jorge Posada highlights 16 one-and-done players on Hall of Fame ballot

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 24:  Jorge Posada addresses the media during a press conference to announces his retirement from the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on January 24, 2012 in the Bronx borough of  New York City.  (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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Former Yankees catcher Jorge Posada received only 17 total votes (3.8 percent) on the 2017 Hall of Fame ballot. Unfortunately, he is one of 16 players who fell short of the five percent vote threshold and is no longer eligible on the ballot. The other players are Magglio Ordonez (three votes, 0.7 percent), Edgar Renteria (two, 0.5 percent), Jason Varitek (two, 0.5 percent), Tim Wakefield (one, 0.2 percent), Casey Blake (zero), Pat Burrell (zero), Orlando Cabrera (zero), Mike Cameron (zero), J.D. Drew (zero), Carlos Guillen (zero), Derrek Lee (zero), Melvin Mora (zero), Arthur Rhodes (zero), Freddy Sanchez (zero), and Matt Stairs (zero).

Posada, 45, helped the Yankees win four World Series championships from 1998-2000 as well as 2009. He made the American League All-Star team five times, won five Silver Sluggers, and had a top-three AL MVP Award finish. Posada also hit 20 or more homers in eight seasons, finished with a career adjusted OPS (a.k.a. OPS+) of 121, and accrued 42.7 Wins Above Replacement in his 17-year career according to Baseball Reference.

While Posada’s OPS+ and WAR are lacking compared to other Hall of Famers — he was 18th of 34 eligible players in JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s WAR-based Hall of Fame metric — catchers simply have not put up the same kind of numbers that players at other positions have. That’s likely because catching is such a physically demanding position and often results in injuries and shortened careers. It is, perhaps, not an adjustment voters have thought to make when considering Posada’s eligibility.

Furthermore, Posada’s quick ouster is somewhat due to the crowded ballot. Most voters had a hard time figuring out which 10 players to vote for. Had Posada been on the ballot in a different era, writers likely would have found it easier to justify voting for him.

Posada joins Kenny Lofton in the “unjustly one-and-done” group.

Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez Elected to the Hall of Fame

1990:  Outfielder Tim Raines of the Montreal Expos in action. Mandatory Credit: Otto Greule  /Allsport
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The 2017 induction class of the Baseball Hall of Fame was announced Wednesday evening and we have three inductees: Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriguez. Raines and Bagwell had to wait a good long while to get the call. Rodriguez is in on his first year of eligibility. But nowhere on the plaque will it say how long it took. All that matters now is that three of the greatest players of their respective generations finally have a place in Cooperstown.

Players must be named on 75% of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s ballots to get in. Raines was named on 86% of the ballots. Bagwell was named on 86.2%. Rodriguez was named on 76%. Non-inductees with significant vote totals include Trevor Hoffman at 74% and Vladimir Guerrero at  71.7%. The full results can be seen here.

Others not making the cut but still alive for next year, with vote totals in parenthesis: Edgar Martinez (58.6); Roger Clemens (54.1); Barry Bonds (53.8); Mike Mussina (51.8); Curt Schilling (45.0); Manny Ramirez (23.8); Larry Walker (21.9); Fred McGriff (21.7); Jeff Kent (16.7); Gary Sheffield (13.3%); Billy Wagner (10.2); and Sammy Sosa (8.6). Making his final appearance on the ballot was Lee Smith, who received 34.2% of the vote in his last year of eligibility. He will now be the business of the Veterans Committee.

Players who fell off the ballot due to not having the requisite 5% to stay on: Jorge Posada; Magglio Ordoñez; Edgar Renteria; Jason Varitek; Tim Wakefield; Casey Blake; Pat Burrell; Orlando Cabrera; Mike Cameron; J.D. Drew; Carlos Guillen; Derrek Lee; Melvin Mora; Arthur Rhodes; Freddy Sanchez; and Matt Stairs

We’ll have continued updates on today’s Hall of Fame vote throughout the evening and in the coming days. In the meantime, congratulations to this year’s inductees, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell and Ivan Rodriguez!