Thoughts from Tuesday's games

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Twitter is broken for me and a bunch of other new users, so let’s post some quick notes here:

– Hopefully, Tuesday’s ninth inning will bring an end to manager Terry
Francona’s attempts to keep Nick Green in the shortstop mix for the Red
Sox. Green did better than expected as a stopgap in place of an injured
Jed Lowrie and a gimpy Julio Lugo, but he doesn’t get on base, he
doesn’t have much range and he’s just not a very smart ballplayer. Two
ugly plays led to two runs against Jonathan Papelbon tonight, allowing
the A’s to tie it up.

Lowrie needs to play regularly for the next few weeks, allowing the
Red Sox to see whether they truly need an upgrade at short for
September and the postseason. Green should be thought of strictly as a
utilityman.

– MVP candidate Jason Bartlett hit ninth for the Rays tonight.
Against a left-hander. Against an ace left-hander he’s actually slugged
.483 against in his career. Bartlett is hitting .333/.386/.511 this
season. He’s hit .328/.381/.464 against southpaws in his career. He was
9-for-29 against CC Sabathia. And the Rays arranged it so that he would
potentially get one less at-bat than Pat Burrell, Gabe Kapler or Dioner
Navarro.

For the record, leadoff hitter B.J. Upton was batting .184/.311/.254 against lefties this season.

– Ross Gload walkoff blast against Rafael Soriano in the bottom of
the ninth Tuesday was his fourth homer for Florida in 134 at-bats this
season. He hit three homers in 388 at-bats for Kansas City last year.
Sadly, the Royals may well have been better off with him instead of
Mike Jacobs. They’re still paying most of Gload’s salary, and the
pitcher they gave to the Marlins for Jacobs, Leo Nunez, got the win in
relief tonight.

– Poor Scott Downs. Battles back from bases loaded with no outs in a
tie game against the Mariners by getting a 5-2 groundout and a
strikeout and then gets 0-2 on Ichiro Suzuki with a chance to send the
game into extra innings. He throws a perfect breaking ball off the
plate and barely off the ground and Ichiro somehow bloops perfectly in
between the shortstop and center fielder, ending the game. No one else
in baseball gets that pitch in the air.

Downs now has three losses and an additional blown save in his last five appearances.

He wouldn’t have even had to face Ichiro tonight if the defense had
done a better job on the 6-2 groundout. It was just to the right of
third base, and Scott Rolen could have touched third and still had
plenty of time to throw home, with the caveat being that the runner
would have been in his throwing lane. When he fired home instead, the
Jays still might have had a chance for the double play at third base,
except the shortstop was late getting over to cover the bag.

Bryce Harper reportedly wants a $400 million extension

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 13: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals reacts after hitting a single in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game five of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 13, 2016 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
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Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports the Nationals are “balking at Bryce Harper’s demands in early talks about a long-term contract extension” and are thus prepared to let him walk when he becomes a free agent following the 2018 season.

What would make the Nationals balk? According to Nightengale’s source it’s a deal that “will exceed 10 years in length and likely pay him in excess of $400 million.”

That might seem crazy given historical norms and given that Harper is coming off a disappointing season, but if Harper returns to anything close to his 2015 form in which he won National League MVP honors while hitting .330/.460/.649 and hit 42 home runs, $400 million is going to seem quite reasonable. That sort of production was not some crazy fluke for a guy with Harper’s talent, after all. And he’ll be 26-years-old when he hits free agency, which is far, far younger than your typical free agent. Indeed, he’ll be entering what have, historically, been the prime years of most superstars’ careers.

The closest comp to star hitting free agency at that age was Alex Rodriguez, who was 25 when he signed his first $250 million deal following the 2000 season. Top big league deals going from $250 million to $400 million in the space of two decades is not really all that crazy when you think about it. Especially when you realize that, between 2001 and 2018, baseball revenues will have increased by a factor of three, assuming current growth holds.

UPDATE: My first thought after reading all of this was “I wonder if the Nats leaked the $400 million thing, whether it was an actual demand or not, in order to turn the PR in their favor if they deal Harper?” Question answered:

At least one quarter of the Today’s Committee owed Bud Selig a solid

Bud Selig
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OXON HILL, MD — The 16-member committee that voted Bud Selig and John Schuerholz into the Hall of Fame — the “Today’s Game” Committee — consisted of the following members: Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar, Bobby Cox, Andre Dawson, Dennis Eckersley, Pat Gillick, Ozzie Smith, Don Sutton, and Frank Thomas, major league owners/executives Paul Beeston (Blue Jays), Bill DeWitt (Cardinals), David Glass (Royals), Andy MacPhail (Phillies) and Kevin Towers (Reds); and media members/historians Bill Center, Steve Hirdt and Tim Kurkjian.

That’s certainly a venerable list of names. A quarter of that electorate, however, could be characterized as having a pretty notable conflict of interest when it comes to Bud Selig. At least if anyone cared about things like conflict of interest when it comes to baseball.

Whatever the case, two of those 16 guys became owners — and even more wealthier as a result — due to his affirmatively choosing or approving them to join sports’ most exclusive club. Two others were personally chosen by Selig to assist him over the years, raising their profile and importance in the game and giving them resume pieces that will one day be part of their own Hall of Fame cases.

  • Royals owner David Glass: Became the Royals CEO and Chairman in 1993, right after Selig became the acting commissioner. Glass was a key ally for Selig’s efforts to impose a salary cap and take a financial hard line in negotiations with the union, which eventually led to the 1994-95 strike. In 1999-2000 he became the full owner of the Royals after Selig personally stepped in to stop a bid for the club by a competing ownership group and is thus widely refereed to as Selig’s handpicked man. Glass is on the Hall of Fame’s Board of Directors, on which Selig served for decades.
  • Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr.: Bought his club in 1995, after Selig had taken over and thus would not be a baseball owner without Selig’s approval. DeWitt was a point man for Selig on a host of his pet projects, including the Wild Card and interleague play. He likewise led the charge for revenue sharing and other potentially divisive financial matters which tended to be in the interest of smaller market clubs, the sort of which Selig himself championed when he was a mere owner. DeWitt chaired the committee to find Selig’s successor, which eventually served to validate Selig’s desire to have his hand-picked choice, Rob Manfred, succeed him.
  • Phillies President Andy MacPhail: Selig’s handpicked choice for the labor negotiating committee in 2002 which, at the time, continued speculation that MacPhail would one day be on the short list to succeed Selig. A few years before that MacPhail was public in saying that Selig would be the right choice to become permanent commissioner at a time when many were concerned that a team owner assuming that role was a conflict of interest.
  • Former President of the Blue Jays, Paul Beeston: In the late 90s, Beeston resigned as president of the Toronto Blue Jays following a successful reign to accepted baseball’s newly created position of president and chief operating officer. The move was widely seen as a means of giving Selig a top lieutenant — a defacto deputy commissioner — which would help him smooth his transition from acting commissioner to permanent commissioner. Many thought at the time that if Beeston was not hired for that gig, Selig may have declined the full-time commissioner’s role. Selig was described in the press at the time as a strong admirer of Beeston’s. In 2014, Beeston reflected glowingly on Selig’s legacy, saying, “I absolutely admire him on this steroid thing.” Beeston is on the Hall of Fame’s Board of Directors, on which Selig served.

Is there anything necessarily wrong with that? No. Baseball is a small world and Bud Selig existed in it for a long, long time, so having a relationship with Selig was pretty unavoidable for almost anyone with any sort of profile in the game. No technical rule or historical baseball norm was violated by virtue of this vote or the composition of the committee itself. Indeed, the old Veterans Committee to the Hall of Fame was widely seen as a group of good old boys voting their old friends. Worth noting, perhaps, that that iteration of the Veterans Committee was abolished precisely for that reason, but I suppose we’ll leave that go for now.

I wonder, however, what the vote totals would have been for some of the other candidates if 25% of their electorate consisted of people who owed personal and professional debts to them the way Selig’s electorate owed him. Maybe Barry Bonds’ agent could get a Hall of Fame vote? Roger Clemens’ mechanic? Mark McGwire’s interior designer?

I suppose we’ll never know.