With Bruce out, it's time for Reds to sell

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The situation hardly seemed rosy a week ago. While the standings said
the NL Central title was still very much in reach, the Reds mostly
sported a lineup with just two above average regulars and a rotation
that seemed to be fading quickly after such a promising start. Trades
for outfielders or a third baseman were considered, but nothing ever
materialized. It looked like the only way the offense was going to
become formidable was if Jay Bruce started fulfilling his potential and
Edwin Encarnacion returned to previous form after coming back from the
DL.

Well, Encarnacion is back now, but Bruce is done for 6-8 weeks after
fracturing his wrist in the outfield. Odds are that he’ll return for
the final month and maybe a little more, but as poorly as he had been
playing with a healthy wrist, it’s doubtful that he’ll emerge as a
force prior to 2010.

The Reds might be able to survive if the pitching were still coming
through in a big way, but there are few encouraging signs. Aaron Harang
was 5-4 with a 3.36 ERA in May 25. He’s 5-9 with a 4.18 ERA now. Johnny
Cueto, one of the NL’s top three or four pitchers for the first three
months, has struggled in four of his last five appearances, taking his
ERA from 2.17 to 3.62. Bronson Arroyo was lit up in three straight
outings before shutting out Triple-A Norfolk last time out. There’s
still no telling when Edinson Volquez will return from his elbow
problems, and Micah Owings is probably the team’s best option to play
right field in place of Bruce.

Selling is the best answer. None of the team’s veterans are going to
be bargains in upcoming seasons, and there are no stars that would be
impossible to replace in free agency. If the Reds have the chance to
dump Arroyo’s contract, they should take it. He’ll make $11 million in
2010 and $11 million-$13 million if his 2011 option is picked up ($2
million if not). David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes, Ramon Hernandez and
Jonny Gomes could bring in prospects. Perhaps Jerry Hairston Jr. as
well, if teams particularly value his versatility.

Harang is probably the best trade chip, even if the midst of a
second disappointing season. His K/BB ratio remains quite strong, and
while he’s always going to give up homers, his .294 average against
this year seems pretty fluky. He’s not cheap, as he’s guaranteed $12.5
million in 2010 and has a $12.75 million club option for 2011 with a $2
million buyout. However, that is the going rate for above average
innings-eaters. Ideally, the Reds could get a young shortstop for him.
The Angels seem like a pretty good match with Brandon Wood.

The Reds may well hurt their chances in 2010 by moving Harang and
others, but they could potentially have as much money to spend in free
agency as any club in the NL. Cueto and Volquez still look like
potential top-of-the rotation starters, and those two combine with
Bruce and Joey Votto to form one of the game’s most talented cores. If
Harang and Arroyo were moved, Francisco Cordero, who has a no-trade
clause through the end of the year, would be the team’s only player
making more than $7 million. They’ll have a ton of flexibility, leaving
them with little need to settle for more Hairstons, Taverases and
Lincolns when they go shopping this winter. The future still looks
pretty bright.

Clayton Kershaw struggles with control, walks six Marlins

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Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw entered Wednesday night’s start against the Marlins without having issued a walk in his previous three starts. In fact, his last walk came on April 3 when he issued a free pass to Paul Goldschmidt with the bases empty and two outs in the bottom of the first inning. All told, Kershaw was on a streak of 26 walk-less innings before he took the mound at home to take on the Marlins.

Kershaw started off Wednesday in character, striking out the side in the first inning. He issued a walk in a tough second inning, but escaped without allowing a run. Kershaw walked two more in the third and again danced out of danger. In the fourth, Kershaw walked Lewis Brinson to load the bases with no outs and — you guessed it — didn’t end up allowing a run. His errant control finally came back to bite him in the fifth when Kershaw issued back-to-back two-out walks, then served up a three-run home run to Miguel Rojas down the left field line. His night was done when he completed the inning. Five innings, three runs, five hits, six walks, seven strikeouts, 112 pitches.

The six walks Kershaw issued over five innings marked his first six-walk outing since April 7, 2010 when he issued six free passes to the Pirates in 4 2/3 innings. The only other time he walked as many was on August 3, 2009 against the Brewers in a four-plus inning outing. Kershaw hasn’t even walked five batters in an outing recently — the last time was September 23, 2012 against the Reds.