Daily Dose: Second-half sleepers

Leave a comment

While the baseball world pauses for the All-Star break, here are a
dozen players with more second-half upside than their under-the-radar
status suggests …

John Bowker – Getting a much-deserved second chance in San Francisco
after hitting .322/.416/.550 at Triple-A and .307/.363/.523 at
Double-A. He’s not going to smack 30 homers and at 25 years old Bowker
is never going to be a star, but he should be able to hit .275 or so
with 20-homer power and solid on-base skills. Playing time will be an
issue, but he started three of the Giants’ last four games.

Alexi Casilla – Casilla flunked his way to the minors by hitting
.180, but earned a trip back to Minnesota by batting .340 at Triple-A
and Ron Gardenhire’s fetish for speedy, light-hitting middle infielders
all but guarantees that he’ll be in the No. 2 spot again before long.
Casilla has hit just .248/.299/.318 in 197 career games, but swiping 20
bases and being caught just three times gives him fantasy value.

Brett Cecil – Had five Quality Starts mixed in with three brutal
outings in his first eight turns in the Blue Jays’ rotation, but the
22-year-old rookie could show more consistency in the second half.
Cecil had a 3.15 ERA and 217/71 K/BB ratio in 217 innings as a minor
leaguer and should settle in as a good mid-rotation guy if he can do a
decent job keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Matt Diaz – Probably won’t get the playing time that he deserves
even with Jeff Francoeur now out of the picture, but will at least see
starts against left-handers and could work his way into the lineup
against right-handers too if Ryan Church or Garret Anderson go down.
Diaz hit .301/.375/.462 in the first half to give him a .315/.354/.457
line in four seasons with the Braves.

Edwin Encarnacion – After batting just .127 in April he spent all of
May and June on the sidelines with a fractured wrist, but Encarnacion
has posted an .840 OPS while starting nine straight games since
returning two weeks ago and faces little competition for playing time
at third base. He hit .272/.351/.458 from 2006-2008 and still has some
room to grow at the age of 26.

Jake Fox – Fox has hit .313/.356/.550 through 90 trips to the plate
with the Cubs while finally getting his first extended shot at the age
of 26. He hit .318/.384/.650 at Triple-A, so he’ll keep producing if
the Cubs keep playing him and Lou Piniella has found different ways to
get him into the lineup. Fox may even see some time behind the plate
with Geovany Soto on the disabled list.

Chad Gaudin – Has gone just 4-7 with a 5.03 ERA since signing with
the Padres, but just four of his 14 starts have come at
pitcher-friendly Petco Park and with 85 strikeouts in 82.1 innings
Gaudin has the potential to slice his ERA by quite a bit if his control
improves. He has a 3.31 ERA and 39/13 K/BB ratio in 32.2 innings spread
over his last five starts.

Jonny Gomes – He hit .311/.400/.556 in the first half while playing
almost strictly against left-handers, but could be pushed into extended
duty with Jay Bruce lost for the next two months. Gomes has shown a big
platoon split during his career, so that may not be such a great thing,
but he’s still managed 20 homers and 10 steals per 500 plate
appearances against righties along with mashing lefties.

Scott Hairston – Started in center field for the last five games of
the first half and has big-time offensive potential after hitting
.270/.330/.520 in pitcher-friendly San Diego. Oakland isn’t a whole lot
friendlier for batters, but Hairston has 25-homer power with 10-steal
speed and could get a chance to play nearly every day in the second
half.

Matt LaPorta – Made his major-league debut in May, but played
sporadically for three weeks and has been stuck at Triple-A ever since
despite batting .309 with 11 homers, 29 total extra-base hits, and a
.925 OPS in 63 games there. I’m not sure what the Indians are waiting
for at this point, because LaPorta is already 24 years old and has hit
at every level, so expect to see him in the second half.

Carl Pavano – A brutal first start skews his overall numbers,
because Pavano is 8-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 76/17 K/BB ratio in 106
innings since his Indians debut. That stretch includes seven Quality
Starts in his last 10 outings and his fastball is back in the low-90s
after often residing in the high-80s with the Yankees. He’ll never live
down his time in New York, but Pavano is once again a solid starter.

Chris Tillman – As if Adam Jones and George Sherrill aren’t enough
the Orioles’ haul for Erik Bedard also included Tillman, who’s on the
verge of the majors after posting a 2.50 ERA and 88/22 K/BB ratio in
86.1 innings at Triple-A. Tillman has always racked up tons of
strikeouts with 426 in 388 innings, but he’s also made major strides
with his control recently and at 21 years old looks like a future ace.

Dee Gordon’s suspension is likely to lead to a call for harsher PED penalties

Miami Marlins' Dee Gordon celebrates after hitting a double against the Detroit Tigers in the ninth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, April 5, 2016, in Miami. Derek Dietrich scored on the double. The Tigers won 8-7. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)
Associated Press
19 Comments

Objectively speaking there is no difference between Dee Gordon’s suspension for PEDs and anyone else’s. Abraham Almonte, for example. Or Cameron Maybin. Or David Rollins. All were guys who got their 80 games, served their time, came back and whose cases didn’t raise too much of a fuss. But Gordon’s suspension will almost certainly be talked about longer and more loudly and will likely lead to calls for harsher penalties and changes to the PED suspension rules.

Part of it is simply fame. He’s a pretty big name as far as these things go. The biggest since the Biogenesis guys a couple of years ago. He won the batting title last year. He’s the son of a famous major leaguer. There is a direct correlation between the volume and intensity of the narratives applied to one’s story and the fame of the subject of the story. For that reason alone Gordon’s story will last longer and loom larger.

Another reason — a bigger reason, I think — is timing. Gordon was seen by many to have had a breakout season in 2015 and, when it was over, he was rewarded for it with a nice five-year $50 million deal. The narrative will arise by, oh, 9AM today, that the suspension was “worth it” for Gordon and that he cashed in because of it, rendering his suspension a mere slap on the wrist. This is especially true given that his deal is severely backloaded. He’ll lose less than $2 million in salary in 2016 while collecting the other $48 million-plus. Totally worth it!

I understand why people will say that, but such a stance has some serious flaws. Among them:

  • It assumes that we or anyone else knows when Gordon began to take PEDs;
  • It assumes that we or anyone else knows how, in fact, Gordon’s performance was actually enhanced;
  • It forgets that lots and lots of people were talking about how Gordon’s “breakout season” was actually 2014, not 2015, rendering that whole “he juiced and then got his money” argument fairly problematic.

Those points will likely be ignored as arguments in favor of harsher penalties grow louder. Ken Rosenthal reminds us this morning that some have called for some form of contract voiding or clawing back of more money than just the salary earned while on suspension. Those calls too will likely grow louder. There will also be calls for changes in the appeal process. Like this one, which came moments after Gordon’s suspension was announced:

When you have an actual union member angrily call for the repeal of a collectively-bargained protection in punishment situations, you’re sort of through the looking glass. Or past a tipping point. Or something. You’re certainly in a world where the usual dynamics between employer and employee are not operative and, as a result, changes are inevitable. As we noted recently, players today are perhaps more adamantly anti-PED than the owners and the league are. They’re competitors reacting to cheating by their competition. The fuel for stronger penalties is likely to come more from them than anyone.

The union and the league will be negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement this year. Performance enhancing drugs and their penalties will be a part of that. Expect harsher penalties and possibly different sorts of rules altogether. Expect Dee Gordon to be the poster child for these changes, even if his case is no different in form than that of Abraham Almonte, Cameron Maybin, or David Rollins. Expect emotion, rather than logic, to lead the coming debate.

And That Happened: Thursdays scores and highlights

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Arodys Vizcaino, right, is congratulated by catcher Tyler Flowers after earning a save during a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Thursday, April 28, 2016. The Braves defeated the Red Sox 5-3. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
5 Comments

Gonna mail this one in this morning. Partially because of the light slate of games yesterday, partially because of a late night for me but mostly because of the Dee Gordon news which has me thinking of a lot of other things I want to write about this AM.

It’s worth noting that the Braves won a game. It comes just ahead of a series at Wrigley against the Cubs, so the winning streak will likely last a single day, but the 2016 Braves have to take what they can get.

The Marlins had a notable night outside the Gordon news too, finishing off a sweep of the Dodgers, which had to make Don Mattingly happy. For what it’s worth, Gordon singled in a run and then came around to score in the seventh. His RBI tied it and the run he scored ended up being the one necessary for the Marlins’ margin of victory. That means nothing, but you know some jackwagons are gonna make a big deal out of that and I figured I’d get ahead of the jackwagons and note that, yes, Gordon and the Marlins knew what was coming before it was announced because that’s how the appeals process works, but no, it makes no difference, because that’s how the appeals process works.

Anyway: Here are the rest of the scores:

Tigers 7, Athletics 3
Cubs 7, Brewers 2
Phillies 3, Nationals 0
Orioles 10, White Sox 2
Braves 5, Red Sox 3
Diamondbacks 3, Cardinals 0
Marlins 5, Dodgers 3
Pirates vs. Rockies — POSTPONED
: In the early morning rain with a dollar in my hand. And an aching in my heart, and my pockets full of sand. I’m a long way from home, and I miss my loved one so. In the early morning rain with no place to go.

Marlins 2B Dee Gordon suspended 80 games for PEDs

deegordon
Getty Images
38 Comments

LOS ANGELES — Dee Gordon has been suspended 80 games by Major League Baseball after the Miami Marlins second baseman tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

Gordon tested positive for exogenous Testosterone and Clostebol, MLB said in a release after the Marlins’ 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night.

The fleet-footed Gordon won the National League batting title by hitting .333 last season and signed a $50 million, 5-year deal with Miami in January. He’s made two All-Star teams in his six seasons and won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards at second base last year.

Gordon, the son of former major league pitcher Tom Gordon, had a key hit in Miami’s win over the Dodgers on Thursday. He’s batting .266 with six stolen bases this season.

Dee Gordon is a very important part of our team, and we all love him and support him,” Marlins president David Samson said. “That said, I don’t like or condone what he did. He is an important member of this organization and will be for many years to come. It’s a huge, huge disappointment to the kids, to our fans, to his teammates and to everyone in our organization every single day.

“He will be back 80 games from now, and he will be welcomed back to this organization. But in the interim period, we expect him, and we are positive that he will do everything that’s necessary to make it up to his fans, to his teammates and to this organization.”

Devon Travis will start taking at-bats in extended spring training

Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis hits a RBI double to center field against the Tampa Bay Rays during third inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, April 15, 2015 in Toronto. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)  MANDATORY CREDIT
Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP
4 Comments

Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis underwent left shoulder surgery last September. MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm caught up with Jays head athletic trainer George Poulis for updates on several injured players, including Travis. Here’s what Poulis had to say about Travis:

“He’s going to get some live at-bats with the extended team down in Florida on Friday. Big step for him, he’s very excited, he’s doing great, and we’re very optimistic, but no timeline right now on his return. We’re just going day by day, step by step.

“When you have something like that, it continues to heal even when you’re playing. We’re just trying to acclimate him and condition him to withstand all of the stress that he’s going to put on his shoulder … He won’t play in the field right now. We’ll mix that in, as well, but right now he’s just going to get some at-bats.”

The key phrase, of course, is “no timetable”. The second baseman’s rehab has gone slower than expected. Getting into some extended spring training games, though, signals progress.

Travis, 25, broke out last season, hitting .304/.361/.498 with eight home runs and 35 RBI in 239 plate appearances last season. The Jays have had Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney handle second base duties this year, but their aggregate .560 OPS is the worst mark in the American League.