Daily Dose: Sell high for the second half

Leave a comment

While the baseball world pauses for the All-Star break, here are a
dozen players who fantasy owners should be looking to cash in for
maximum value …

Jason Bartlett – Bartlett is batting .347 compared to his career
mark of .286 and has already homered eight times in 68 games after
never going deep even five times in a season previously, so he’s an
easy sell-high pick. His speed will give him plenty of value even if
his bat returns to career norms, so there’s no need to part with
Bartlett unless the offer is strong and someone is willing to overpay.

Nick Blackburn – Aside from great control there’s little in
Blackburn’s track record to suggest that he’ll keep up an ERA in the
low 3.00s. He entered this year with a 4.26 career mark, has the single
worst strikeout rate in the league at 3.9 per nine innings, and is far
from an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Blackburn is a solid starter, but
he’s just not this good and many people seem sold on him right now.

Ryan Franklin – Franklin has the absurd facial hair, sub-1.00 ERA,
and 21 saves of a shutout closer, but his low-90s fastball and modest
7.1 strikeouts per nine innings combined with an unsustainably amazing
.207 batting average on balls in play signal that he’s not long for the
unhittable category. If you can convince another owner to value him
like a truly elite closer, pounce on the offer.

J.A. Happ – Happ has gone from undervalued to overvalued in the span
of about two months, which is what happens when a rookie goes 6-0 with
a 2.90 ERA for the defending champs. In reality Happ is a 26-year-old
who had a 4.20 ERA with strong strikeout rates and poor control at
Triple-A. He’ll keep missing bats and should remain a solid starter,
but don’t expect his ERA to stay under 4.00.

Adam Kennedy – Kennedy came out of nowhere to bat .390 with a 1.084
OPS in May, but the 33-year-old career .276/.329/.392 hitter has batted
.237/.291/.349 since. He’s already fallen back down to earth, but
there’s still more to come and it makes sense to cash him in before the
inflated value completely dries up. He’s perhaps the least risky
sell-high player on this list, so just start shopping him.

Raul Ibanez – Setting aside his quarreling with a blogger and recent
return from a groin injury, Ibanez is having a career-year at the age
of 37 and those tend not to last. He never managed even a .900 OPS
prior to this season, yet is currently sporting a 1.015 OPS that ranks
third in the NL behind Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Ibanez is a
plenty good hitter, but he’s just not an MVP-caliber player.

Brandon Inge – Getting shut out in the Home Run Derby may be a sign
of things to come for Inge in the second half. He’s always had 20-homer
power, but going deep 21 times in 86 games is something entirely
different and maintaining a .268 batting average will also be difficult
given his .239 career mark. Catcher eligibility gives Inge plenty of
value no matter what, but a .240-10-35 second half is likely.

Jason Marquis – He came into this season with a 79-70 record and
4.55 ERA, so naturally Marquis has 11 wins and a 3.65 ERA in his first
year calling Coors Field home. Marquis has legitimately improved by
supplementing his usual horrendous strikeout rate and poor control by
inducing significantly more grounders, so he’s not doomed for a 6.00
post-break ERA, but there’s no first-half repeat coming.

Joe Mauer – You’ll never find a bigger Mauer fan than Yours Truly,
but the power that he displayed upon coming off the disabled list in
May was ultimately a fluke and while Mauer without power is still one
of the game’s elite all-around players in real life his fantasy value
will never be more inflated. If shouldn’t shock anyone if he wins a
third batting title, but he has just three homers in the past 35 games.

Kevin Millwood – After posting ERAs of 4.52, 5.16, and 5.07 during
his first three Rangers seasons Millwood is currently sporting a 3.46
mark that was under 3.00 as recently as last week. Nothing has changed
within the nuts and bolts of his performance, as Millwood’s strikeout,
walk, and ground-ball rates are all sub par while his ball-in-play
batting average is 35 points better than his career mark.

Scott Rolen – He’s stayed healthy enough to play in 77 of 90 games
while hitting .320 and one or both of those things figures to change in
the second half. Rolen has never hit even .300 before and 2003 was the
last time he missed fewer than 20 games in a season. Unless he
rediscovers the power stroke that appears to have vanished after 2006,
Rolen will disappoint a lot of owners down the stretch.

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist finally figured out big-league pitching and
added power to his resume last year, so what he’s done this season
isn’t quite as shocking as it first appears. With that said, whenever a
28-year-old career .222/.279/.370 hitter who slugged just 23 homers in
364 games in the minors goes off for 17 homers and a 1.012 OPS in the
first half … well, you can feel pretty safe selling high.

Shohei Otani may come to the United States after 2017

shohei-otani
Getty Images
Leave a comment

Last week it was widely speculated that Shohei Otani, the highly-touted Japanese pitcher/designated hitter who stars for the Nippon Ham Fighters, would not come to the United States to play due to changes in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The upshot: the new CBA caps money available to international free agents under age 25 at $5-6 million and Otani, 22, would be worth way more than that, so why take the pay cut?

Now, however, Jeff Passan of Yahoo reports that the Fighters are set to post Shotei Otani following the 2017 season. Passan says that his sources have told him that there are potential ways around the limit on spending for under-25 players like Shohei Otani and he links a Japanese article from Sponichi which says the Fighters would post him after the 2017 season.

It’d be interesting to see what that loophole is. Without knowing the exact terms of the CBA on this score it’s impossible to know, but one possibility is that there are different rules applicable to those with professional experience in other countries as opposed to amateur free agents.

Whatever the case, the notion that we could see Otani in the U.S. at age 23 or 24 is pretty exciting.

Report: Phillies close to signing Joaquin Benoit

ANAHEIM, CA - SEPTEMBER 15:  Joaquin Benoit #53 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the seventh inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim  at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 15, 2016 in Anaheim, California.  (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
1 Comment

Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly reports that the Phillies are close to signing free agent reliever Joaquin Benoit. An announcement is expected before the winter meetings end on Thursday.

Benoit, 39, has quietly been among the better relievers in baseball over the past seven years. This past season with the Mariners and Blue Jays, the right-hander put up an aggregate 2.81 ERA with a 52/24 K/BB ratio in 48 innings. That included a 0.38 ERA in 23 2/3 innings after the Jays acquired him from the Mariners.

Benoit suffered a torn calf muscle during a benches-clearing brawl with the Yankees near the end of the regular season. He’s expected to be healthy for spring training.

The Phillies have now added three relievers this offseason with Benoit, Pat Neshek, and David Rollins.