Midseason Awards: AL Rookie of the Year

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The AL ROY class looks a little stronger now than it did a third of the way through the season, when I had Rick Porcello edging out Elvis Andrus
for the top spot, but it’s all because of the pitchers. The rookie
position players have been a truly dreadful lot. According to VORP, not one AL rookie hitter has been worth one win over a replacement player:

1. Brett Gardner – 8.9
2. Elvis Andrus – 6.5
3. Nolan Reimold – 5.8
4. Oscar Salazar – 5.7
5. Clete Thomas – 5.3

Salazar made the list based on all of 33 plate appearances. VORP
doesn’t account for what Gardner and especially Andrus have done
defensively, but it’s still an exceptionally weak class.

Matt Wieters, for what it’s worth, currently comes in at 2.5. Gordon Beckham is at 2.7.

So, any current AL ROY ballot has to be comprised entirely of
pitchers. Fortunately, there are some nice ones to choose from. Let’s
start with VORP, in order to fairly compare them with the hitters:

1. Ricky Romero – 27.7
2. Brad Bergesen – 24.5
3. Andrew Bailey – 21.3
4. Scott Richmond – 18.0
5. Jeff Niemann – 17.7
6. Alfredo Aceves – 14.6
7. Josh Outman – 13.2
8. Sean White – 12.3
9. Darren O’Day – 12.3
10. Rick Porcello – 11.9

Porcello can still figure into the race, but a run of short, mediocre outings have hurt his candidacy.

Moving on to the more traditional numbers of the top five candidates:

Romero – 7-3, 3.00 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 69/30 K/BB in 87 IP
Bergesen – 6-4, 3.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 53/25 K/BB in 104 1/3 IP
Niemann – 8-4, 3.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 52/38 K/BB in 91 2/3 IP
Richmond – 6-5, 3.69 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 71/30 K/BB in 85 1/3 IP

Bailey – 4-1, 10 Sv, 1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 60/19 K/BB in 51 2/3 IP

Richmond has pretty much matched Romero aside from ERA, but the runs
are what matter and Richmond has allowed eight more (six of them
earned). It looks like VORP has the top three correct: Romero, Bergesen
and Bailey in some order.

In comparing Romero and Bergersen, Bergesen has advantages in
quantity and in strength of schedule. He’s also amassed his numbers in
front of a weaker defense. Romero’s remaining advantage is that he’s
given up no unearned runs to Bergesen’s three. I think Bergesen’s
performance rates the edge, though I definitely prefer Romero for the
rest of the season.

Bailey is currently on pace to throw 97 innings, and he’s dragged
his ERA back under 2.00 while working on a string of 11 straight
scoreless appearances. What does need to be held against him is that
he’s blown four saves, three of which have resulted in losses for the
A’s. He wasn’t a closer early on, so it’s not at all fair to judge him
on his 71-percent save percentage. Also, two of his blown saves came in
games in which he didn’t give up a run. Still, I don’t think he’s been
quite as valuable as Romero and Bergesen. It’s close, but I’m placing
him third.

Midseason AL ROY

1. Bergesen
2. Romero
3. Bailey

Shelby Miller snaps 24-start winless streak

Shelby Miller
AP Photo/John Bazemore
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Pitcher wins are stupid, but players do seem to put some stock in them. And so Braves starter Shelby Miller can finish his 2015 season with some positive vibes.

The right-hander held the Cardinals scoreless over eight innings in the first half of a doubleheader Sunday afternoon at Turner Field, an eventual 6-0 victory for the host Braves. Miller struck out seven, gave up only three hits, and finally got some run support to snap a 24-start “winless” streak. (Atlanta was actually 3-21 in that stretch).

Miller’s last official “win” before Sunday came May 17 in Miami. He shut out the Marlins and flirted with a no-hitter in that start.

The 24-year-old will finish the 2015 season with a 6-17 record, 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 171/73 K/BB ratio in 205 1/3 innings. He was traded to Atlanta from St. Louis over the winter in the four-player Jason Heyward deal and will be under the Braves’ control through at least 2018.

Heyward is scheduled to become a free agent this winter.

Adam Eaton to undergo shoulder surgery Monday

Adam Eaton
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
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Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com reports that White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery Monday on his left shoulder. It’s only a cleanup procedure, and Eaton said he expects to be cleared for fishing — offseason priorities — after just 2-3 weeks of rest and rehab.

Eaton is not in the White Sox lineup for Sunday’s season finale against the Tigers, so he’ll finish 2015 with a .287/.361/.431 batting line, 14 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and 98 runs scored in 153 games.

The 26-year-old center fielder has turned into a nice all-around player and he’s under contract through 2021 at some very reasonable rates.