All-Star Futures Game preview

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Unfortunately, the All-Star Futures Game, while a great idea, still
hasn’t really caught on as an event because of MLB’s insistence on
playing it while all of the major league games are going on the Sunday
afternoon before the All-Star Game. On the plus side, at least they
treated it like a real game for the first time last year and played
nine innings. The previous nine contests were all seven innings in
length.

Since the series began, the U.S. and World teams are tied 5-5, with
the World winning the last two contests. Futures Games MVPs have
included Grady Sizemore, Jose Reyes and Alfonso Soriano. Last year; it
was Red Sox prospect Che-Hsuan Lin, who hit a two-run homer as part of
the 3-0 victory at Yankee Stadium.

This year’s contest will feature 50 players, including at least one
from every team. Here’s a quick look at some of the top prospects to
keep an eye on:

U.S. Team

Madison Bumgarner (LHP Giants) – Bumgarner, the 10th overall
selection in the 2007 draft, has taken over as the game’s No. 1
pitching prospect while going 9-2 with a 1.66 ERA, 64 H and 68/20 K/BB
in 81 1/3 innings between Single-A San Jose and Double-A Connecticut
this year. He has exceptional command for a 19-year-old, which is one
reason I think he could help the Giants next month if the team is
willing to rush him to the majors.

Jason Heyward (OF Braves) – The 19-year-old Heyward gave Atlanta
fans a taste of the future when he hit .300/.364/.475 in 40 at-bats
this season. The Braves played it safe anyway and assigned him to
Single-A Myrtle Beach, where he hit .296/.369/.519 through the end of
June. Since his recent move up to Double-A, he’s hit .346/.438/.615
with no strikeouts through 26 at-bats. He’s baseball’s best prospect,
and it looks like he’ll be ready to make an impact at some point during
2010.

Mike Stanton (OF Marlins) – Stanton and Heyward could face
comparisons throughout their career, given that they’re natural right
fielders with big power potential born two months apart. Stanton had
been posting the bigger numbers: he hit 39 homers last year and he was
at .294/.390/.578 through 50 games at Single-A Jupiter to begin this
year. However, he has fallen to .216/.319/.431 in 116 at-bats since
moving up to Double-A. The big concern with Stanton is strikeouts, and
though he has lowered his K rate this year, he’s still fanned 80 times
in 80 games. Odds are that he’ll have some 40-homer seasons in the
majors, though they probably won’t come with particularly strong OBPs.

Brett Wallace (3B Cardinals) – The U.S. team is loaded at third
base, with the third overall pick in the 2007 draft (Josh Vitters) and
the second overall pick in the 2008 draft (Pedro Alvarez) joining
Wallace. Wallace is the most advanced prospect of the group, but he’s
also the least capable of handling third. He’s hit .294/.375/.443
between Double- and Triple-A this year. Since first base is pretty well
blocked off in St. Louis, Wallace’s name could keep coming up in trade
rumors.

Chris Tillman (RHP Orioles) – Tillman and fellow Orioles prospect
Brian Matusz were both deservedly named to the team. Tillman, who was
part of the Erik Bedard deal with Seattle, should be the first to
arrive to the majors, perhaps next month. He’s 7-5 with a 2.50 ERA, 72
H and 88/22 K/BB in 86 1/3 IP for Triple-A New Orleans.

World Team

Jesus Montero (C Yankees) – Like Heyward and Stanton, Montero is a
19-year-old who opened this year in high-A ball and has since moved on
to Double-A. He has the most impressive numbers of the trio, as he hit
.356/.406/.583 in 180 at-bats at Tampa and is at .285/.353/.472 since
moving up to Trenton. If only he were a legitimate catcher, he’d rival
Heyward as the game’s top prospect. Even viewed strictly as a first
baseman/designated hitter, he’s clearly right up there.

Carlos Santana (C Indians) – Santana, who was acquired from the
Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal last year, started out as an
outfielder, but there’s little doubt now that he’ll make it as a major
league catcher. That he’s a switch-hitter isn’t the only reason he
deserves comparisons to Victor Martinez: he’s hitting .266/.394/.494 in
Double-A this season. He has all of the tools defensively and only
needs to add more polish.

Alcides Escobar (SS Brewers) – The only one of the 50 players with
major league experience, Escobar spent last September on Milwaukee’s
bench. He may not be much more than a singles hitter in the majors, but
he has Gold Glove potential at shortstop. The Brewers will consider
playing him at second base in the second half if Craig Counsell loses
his hold on the job.

Neftali Feliz (RHP Rangers) – The Rangers recently opted to send
Feliz to the bullpen to see if he could be of use later this year. He’s
since allowed one run and posted a 9/1 K/BB ratio in 8 2/3 innings.
Feliz, a former Braves prospect who was picked up as part of the Mark
Teixeira trade in 2007, has one of the best arms in the minors.
Durability is a question mark, which is one more reason the Rangers
made the move now. He still projects as a starter for the long haul.

Junichi Tazawa (RHP Red Sox) – Last winter’s controversial import
has gone 8-5 with a 2.79 ERA, 72 H and 79/25 K/BB in 87 innings for
Double-A Portland. If the Red Sox needed help, he’d seem to be about
ready to get a look as a middle reliever. As is, they can continue to
groom him as a starter in Double-A and see what develops. It might be
that he’ll fit best as a setup man.

Looking Ahead to Next Year’s Hall of Fame Ballot

ATLANTA, GA - MAY 15:  Chipper Jones #10 of the Atlanta Braves stands in the on-deck circle prior to batting against the Cincinnati Reds at Turner Field on May 15, 2012 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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We’re only a night’s sleep removed from the 2017 Hall of Fame class being announced but, hey, why not look ahead to next year’s ballot?

After yesterday’s vote there are two guys clearly banging on the door: Trevor Hoffman at 74% and Vladimir Guerrero at  71.7%. It’d be shocking if they didn’t get in.

Also back, of course, and already polling over 50%, which tends to ensure eventual election, are Edgar Martinez (58.6); Roger Clemens (54.1); Barry Bonds (53.8); and Mike Mussina (51.8). All of them are worthy and each of them should have some segment of the baseball commentariat pushing their cases.

But the new class of eligibles is formidable too. Let’s take a preliminary look at everyone we’ll be arguing about next December:

  • Chipper Jones: You have to figure he’s a first ballot guy;
  • Jim Thome: 612 homers will say a lot and, I suspect, most people believe he’s a first ballot guy too. Still, his handling will be curious. Yes, was a better hitter than Sammy Sosa. But was he so much better that it justifies Thome getting 75% in his first year while Sosa is scraping by in single digits? According to Baseball-Reference.com, Thome and Sosa are each other’s most similar comp in history. This is less a Thome point than a Sosa one, of course. I think they both belong.
  • Omar Vizquel: Every few years a defensive specialist hits the ballot and the writers go crazy. When a defensive specialist who got along really, really well with the press comes along, Katie bar the door. Vizquel is gonna cause a lot of arguments about the measurement and value of defense. He’s also going to cause a lot of people to say things like “you had to watch him play” and “it’s not the Hall of Stats!” He’s going to cause a lot of stathead types to counter with “but Scott Rolen was just as good on defense as Vizquel, but you don’t like him!” It’s gonna get ugly. It’ll be glorious.
  • Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones: Will probably be one-and-done, but way better than you remember. If we wanna talk defense, I’ll offer that I have never seen a better defensive center field in my lifetime than Jones. It’s a shame that his falling off a cliff in his 30s will taint that as his legacy.
  • Chris Carpenter and Livan Hernandez: Hall of pretty darn good pitchers who will be fun to talk about;
  • Hideki Matsui: Also one and done, but everyone loves him so I bet he gets some “good guy” votes;
  • Jamie Moyer: A first-time eligible at age 55. Sandy Koufax had been in the Hall of Fame for 18 years when he was the age Moyer will be when he hits the ballot.
  • Scott Rolen: Way better than people believe now and way better than people said at the time. As suggested above, his defense was nowhere near as raved about during his career as it would be if he played today. If his 72.7 career bWAR was heavier on offense as opposed to distributed 52.1/20.6 on offense and defense, people would’ve probably talked him up more. Career WAR for Jim Thome: 72.9. Career WAR for Derek Jeter: 71.8.
  • Johan Santana: The Hall of What Could’ve Been if Shoulders Weren’t So Dumb.
  • Kerry Wood: The Hall of What Could’ve Been if Elbows Weren’t So Dumb. Still, if Jack Morris can stick on the ballot for 15 years based on one dang game, I don’t see why Wood can’t get some support based on a better one.

There are a couple of other fun “oh my God, how has he been retired that long?” names that will appear on next year’s ballot. Check out the whole list here.

Jorge Posada highlights 16 one-and-done players on Hall of Fame ballot

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 24:  Jorge Posada addresses the media during a press conference to announces his retirement from the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on January 24, 2012 in the Bronx borough of  New York City.  (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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Former Yankees catcher Jorge Posada received only 17 total votes (3.8 percent) on the 2017 Hall of Fame ballot. Unfortunately, he is one of 16 players who fell short of the five percent vote threshold and is no longer eligible on the ballot. The other players are Magglio Ordonez (three votes, 0.7 percent), Edgar Renteria (two, 0.5 percent), Jason Varitek (two, 0.5 percent), Tim Wakefield (one, 0.2 percent), Casey Blake (zero), Pat Burrell (zero), Orlando Cabrera (zero), Mike Cameron (zero), J.D. Drew (zero), Carlos Guillen (zero), Derrek Lee (zero), Melvin Mora (zero), Arthur Rhodes (zero), Freddy Sanchez (zero), and Matt Stairs (zero).

Posada, 45, helped the Yankees win four World Series championships from 1998-2000 as well as 2009. He made the American League All-Star team five times, won five Silver Sluggers, and had a top-three AL MVP Award finish. Posada also hit 20 or more homers in eight seasons, finished with a career adjusted OPS (a.k.a. OPS+) of 121, and accrued 42.7 Wins Above Replacement in his 17-year career according to Baseball Reference.

While Posada’s OPS+ and WAR are lacking compared to other Hall of Famers — he was 18th of 34 eligible players in JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s WAR-based Hall of Fame metric — catchers simply have not put up the same kind of numbers that players at other positions have. That’s likely because catching is such a physically demanding position and often results in injuries and shortened careers. It is, perhaps, not an adjustment voters have thought to make when considering Posada’s eligibility.

Furthermore, Posada’s quick ouster is somewhat due to the crowded ballot. Most voters had a hard time figuring out which 10 players to vote for. Had Posada been on the ballot in a different era, writers likely would have found it easier to justify voting for him.

Posada joins Kenny Lofton in the “unjustly one-and-done” group.