What we're watching – Ollie rejoins the Mets

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– Oliver Perez makes his much-anticipated return to the rotation versus
the Dodgers. Of course, most of the anticipation comes from National
League hitters, rather than Mets fans. Perez had a 9.97 ERA in five
starts before the Mets shelved him for nine weeks with a knee injury.
The left-hander had a 3.12 ERA in four rehab starts, but his one
particularly strong effort came in the short-season New York-Penn
League. Overall, he allowed 17 hits and walked 11 in 17 1/3 innings.
The Dodgers will throw Hiroki Kuroda.

– Both failed last time out, but Zack Greinke and Tim Wakefield will
again have chances to become the AL’s first 11-game winners tonight.
Wakefield has the advantage of facing an A’s team that’s 12th in the AL
in runs, 13th in OBP and dead last in slugging. Greinke, though, has
already manhandled his opponent, Detroit, twice this season, throwing a
pair of compete games that resulted in identical 6-1 victories. He’s
10-4 with a 2.69 ERA lifetime against the Tigers.

Game of the Night

Texas vs. L.A. Angels – The Rangers and Angels entered the
three-game series with identical records, and nothing has been decided
through two games, as the Rangers were able to bounce back from a 9-4
defeat to win 8-5 on Tuesday. Tonight’s matchup is made more
interesting in that both starters are dealing with questions about
their arms at the moment. Vicente Padilla will work on eight days’ rest
after complaining of shoulder soreness. He lost to the Angels after
giving up five runs and two homers over five innings on June 29. Ervin
Santana and his still iffy elbow ligament will face the Rangers for the
first time this season. He lost Friday in his return from the DL,
leaving him 1-4 with a 7.43 ERA in seven starts for the season. The
Angels will probably be without the services of Vladimir Guerrero after
he suffered a strained leg muscle last night.

Yankees chase Charlie Morton in the fourth inning of ALCS Game 3, but he actually pitched decently

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Astros starter Charlie Morton was taken out with two outs in the fourth inning of Game 3 of the ALCS on Monday night. Morton surrendered three runs in the second and was on the hook for another four in the fourth, but he actually threw a decent game.

Morton got the first two outs in the second in short order, but Starlin Castro kept the inning alive with a very weakly hit single down the third base line. The exit velocity on that one, according to Statcast, was 57 MPH. Aaron Hicks then blooped a 2-2 splitter into shallow left-center field. Exit velocity: 74 MPH. After working a 1-1 count against Todd Frazier, Morton threw a fastball low and away, but Frazier was somehow able to muster enough strength to push it over the fence in right-center for a three-run homer.

In the fourth, Greg Bird led off the inning with a ground-rule double to left field on a ball that left the bat at 78 MPH. Unfortunately for Morton, Cameron Maybin just horribly misplayed the ball and because he didn’t touch it, he didn’t get charged with an error.

Morton rebounded by getting a couple of outs. He didn’t appear to be pitching around Frazier, but walked him on five pitches. Morton then got Chase Headley to hit a ground ball (88.4 MPH), but second baseman Jose Altuve was shaded a bit too far to the right. Though he was able to corral it in the shallow outfield, he had no play, and the Yankees got their fourth run of the game. Morton hit Gardner, the next batter, with a 0-1 curve, loading the bases. That was the final straw for manager A.J. Hinch, who brought in Will Harris to relieve Morton. Facing Aaron Judge, Harris uncorked a wild pitch, allowing Frazier to score to make it 5-0. After working the count to 2-2, Judge ripped an up-and-in fastball that just barely got over the wall in left field for a three-run homer to up the score to 8-0.

Morton’s final line: 3 2/3 innings, seven runs (all earned), six hits (the one not listed here was a bunt single in the first), two walks, one hit batsman, three strikeouts. Here are the hit probabilities of five of those hits (excluding the bunt), according to Baseball Savant:

  • Castro single: 10 percent
  • Hicks single: 70 percent
  • Frazier homer: 55 percent
  • Bird double: 4 percent
  • Headley single: 12 percent

Unfortunately for Morton, he was a victim of bad luck, bad timing, and bad relief. He pitched much, much better than the box score indicates.

The Astros, meanwhile, hit into some bad luck. Yuli Gurriel crushed a fastball to right field in the second inning off of CC Sabathia, but Judge made a fantastic leaping catch that caused him to crash into the wall and tumble backwards. That had a hit probability of 59 percent and was “barreled,” according to Baseball Savant. Maybin “barreled” a ball in the fifth that Judge dove in on and caught. That would be a hit 77 percent of the time.

This isn’t to make excuses for the Astros. The Yankees have outplayed them this game. But contrary to the score, the Yankees haven’t been blowing the Astros out of the water. This is the kind of game the Astros shouldn’t read to much into looking ahead the rest of the series.