Billy Butler and the best young hitters in baseball

Leave a comment

Zack Greinke has obviously been the big story for the Royals this year, but Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star notes
that Billy Butler is at least giving fans a second reason for optimism
while the team tries to avoid losing 90-plus games for the eighth time
in a dozen seasons:

Billy Butler, barely 23 years old, is showing some real signs of
turning into the first legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter the Royals
have developed since, what, Sweeney? Four hits yesterday, including two
doubles, raised his line to .293/.344/.449. … Since June 10–we’re
talking 18 starts and 81 plate appearances, roughly one-eighth of a
season–Billy is hitting .333/.370/.520, with five doubles, three
homers and nine RBIs.

Butler was one of my “breakout” picks this season, so I’m happy to see
him thriving after the Royals demoted him to the minors following a
slow start last year. He hit .336/.416/.561 in the minors despite being
extremely young for every level, never posting a batting average below
.290 at any stop, so it was only a matter of time before Butler started
knocking around big-league pitchers too.

Mellinger’s blurb about Butler got me curious about how well his
production compares to other 23-year-olds and in the bigger picture how
well various other young hitters are faring this season. With that in
mind–and with the help of utterly indispensable–here’s a look at how the youngest hitters in
baseball are doing in 2009, broken down by age group:

20-YEAR-OLDS         PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+
Elvis Andrus 232 .269 .330 .380 87

I’ve set the cutoff for this little study at 200 plate appearances,
but Elvis Andrus is actually the only 20-year-old hitter in all of
baseball with even 100 trips to the plate this season. In fact,
Fernando Martinez of the Mets is the only other 20-year-old to bat at
all this year unless you count Tigers starter Rick Porcello’s work at
the plate during interleague play.

While not especially productive Andrus has certainly held his own at
the plate, which is an extremely promising sign from a 20-year-old
shortstop who didn’t do a whole lot of hitting in the minors. Andrus
has been fantastic defensively, rating 5.3 runs above average in 65
games according to Ultimate Zone Rating, so even slight improvements
offensively would make him an All-Star-caliber player.

21-YEAR-OLDS         PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+
Justin Upton 315 .309 .387 .558 141

I’ve been fawning over Justin Upton in this space all season,
so it shouldn’t surprise you to learn that he’s a) the only 21-year-old
with more than 200 plate appearances and b) knocking the cover off the
ball. Upton currently has the 18th-best adjusted OPS+ of all time for a
21-year-old, with Mickey Mantle and Hank Aaron tied for the spot above
him. He’s on pace to hit .309 with 30 homers, 40 doubles, 75 walks, and
20 steals, and has also been outstanding defensively in right field.

22-YEAR-OLDS         PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+
Pablo Sandoval 298 .327 .379 .548 142
Colby Rasmus 256 .271 .313 .453 102
Jay Bruce 308 .215 .295 .458 94

Pablo Sandoval has quickly become one of my favorite players,
because the man they call “Fat Ichiro” or “Kung Fu Panda” has hit .327
with a .548 slugging percentage despite swinging at everything and running the bases like he’s jonesing for a piece of cake. Combined with his 41-game debut last season Sandoval has hit .333/.372/.528 through 452 plate appearances in the majors.

23-YEAR-OLDS         PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+
Evan Longoria 316 .297 .377 .558 139
Adam Jones 310 .300 .355 .502 120
Billy Butler 303 .289 .340 .443 107
Asdrubal Cabrera 243 .307 .364 .417 103
Dexter Fowler 293 .250 .340 .381 87
Chris Davis 270 .203 .259 .422 76

This is Butler’s age group and as you can see he fares pretty well,
ranking third in adjusted OPS+ behind only Evan Longoria and Adam
Jones, although he’s also been less valuable than Asdrubal Cabrera once
defense is factored in. Longoria has been one of the most valuable players in the league through three months, while Jones currently has the 27th-best adjusted OPS+ ever for a 23-year-old center fielder.

In baseball, if you lose the World Series you still get a ring

ST. LOUIS - APRIL 3:  Detail view of the St. Louis Cardinals 2006 World Series Ring at Busch Stadium on April 3, 2007 in St. Louis, Missouri.  (Photo by Scott Rovak/Getty Images)
Leave a comment

“Second place is first loser” — some jerk, probably.

The funny thing about “winning is everything” culture in sports is that it’s revered, primarily, by people with the least amount of skin in the game. Self-proclaimed “Super Fans” and talk radio hosts and guys like that. People who may claim to live and breathe sports but who, for the most part, have other things in their lives. Jobs and families and hobbies and stuff. Winning is everything for them on the weekend at, like, Buffalo Wild Wings or in their man cave.

Athletes — whose actual job is to play sports — like to win too. They’re certainly more focused and committed to winning than Joe Super Fan is, what with it being their actual lives and such. But you see far less “winning is everything” sentiment from them. In interviews they talk about how they hate to lose but, with a little bit of distance, they almost always talk about appreciating efforts in a well-played loss. They rarely talk about big losses — even championship losses — as failures or choke jobs or disgraces of one stripe or another.

All of which makes this story by Tim Rohan in the New York Times fun and interesting. It’s about championship rings for the non-championship winners. The 2014 Royals — winners of the A.L. pennant but losers of the World Series — are featured, and the story of rings for World Series losers is told. Mike Stanton, who played on a ton of pennant and World Series-winning teams with the Yankees and Braves, talks about his various rings and how, even though the Braves lost in the World Series that year, 1991 is his favorite.

Also mentioned: George Steinbrenner’s thoughts about rings for World Series losers. You will likely not be surprised about his sentiments on the matter.

Wait, what is the non-tender deadline again?

Screen Shot 2015-12-01 at 7.03.34 AM
Leave a comment

For the next day and a half you’ll hear a lot about the non-tender deadline and/or players being tendered or not tendered a contract. Here, in case you’re unaware, is what that means.

By midnight on Wednesday teams have to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. If they do, the team retains control over the player. Now, to be clear, the team is not simply “tendering” the player the actual contract specifying what he’ll be paid. Think of it as more of a token gesture — a placeholder contract — at that point the team and the player can negotiate salary for 2016 and, if they can’t come to an agreement over that (i.e. an agreement avoiding arbitration) they will proceed to submit proposed salaries to one another and have a salary arbitration early in the spring.

If the team non-tenders a player, however, that player immediately becomes a free agent, eligible to sign anywhere with no strings attached.

Basically, the calculus is whether or not the team thinks the player in question is worth the low end of what he might receive in arbitration. Or, put differently, if the guy isn’t worth what he made in 2015, he’s probably going to be non-tendered.

MLB Trade Rumors has a handy “Non-Tender Tracker” which lists the status of the couple hundred arbitration eligible players and whether or not they’ve been tendered a contract. We’ll, of course, make mention of notable non-tender guys as their status for 2016 becomes known over the next day or two.

Mariners interested in free agent outfielder Nori Aoki

AP Photo/Ben Margot
1 Comment

New Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has kept pretty busy in his short time on the job and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports that free agent outfielder Nori Aoki could be his next target. The club recently pursued a trade for Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but the asking price has them looking at alternatives.

Aoki, who turns 34 in January, has hit .287 with a .353 on-base percentage over four seasons since coming over from Japan. He was having a fine season with the Giants this year prior to being shut down in September with lingering concussion symptoms.

The Giants decided against picking up Aoki’s $5.5 million club option for 2016 earlier this month, but he should still do pretty well for himself this winter assuming he’s feeling good.

Report: Johnny Cueto is believed to be looking for a $140-160 million deal

AP Photo/Matt Slocum
1 Comment

It was reported Sunday that free agent right-hander Johnny Cueto had turned down a six-year, $120 million contract from the Diamondbacks. He’s hoping to land a bigger deal this winter and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has heard some chatter about what he’s looking for.

Jordan Zimmermann finalized a five-year, $110 million contract with the Tigers today, which works out to $22 million per season. Arizona’s offer to Cueto checked in at $20 million per season. A six-year offer to Cueto at the same AAV (average annual value) as Zimmermann would put him at $132 million, which is still a little shy of the figure stated by Crasnick. Of course, Cueto owns a 2.71 ERA (145 ERA+) over the last five seasons compared to a 3.14 ERA (123 ERA+) by Zimmermann during that same timespan, so there’s a case to be made that he should get more. Still, he’s the clear No. 3 starter on the market behind David Price and Zack Greinke.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs are among the other teams who have interest in Cueto. One variable in his favor is that he is not attached to draft pick compensation, as he was traded from the Reds to the Royals during the 2015 season.