While they have a slightly better record than the Indians, the Diamondbacks are the second team we’re declaring dead for 2009. Wednesday’s loss dropped them 18 1/2 games back in the NL West. Even the lowly Nationals, the recipient of the first fork of the year, are a mere 17 1/2 games in the NL East.
So, let’s examine what the D’backs can look forward to in 2010.
The 2010 depth chart
Catcher: Chris Snyder, Miguel Montero (Arb.), Orlando Mercado, James Skelton
If they hadn’t been so stubborn about holding out for Michael Bowden, the Diamondbacks very likely could have had Daniel Bard from the Red Sox for Montero over the winter. Unfortunately, they probably wouldn’t do so well now. Montero hasn’t progressed in an expanded role first brought upon by the managerial switch to A.J. Hinch and then enhanced further by Snyder’s recent DL stint.
The team could instead opt to move Snyder, who will make $10.5 million between 2010 and 2011, but they’d be fortunate to receive more than a couple of B prospects back. Since there aren’t any assurances that Montero will be a quality regular and none of the team’s prospects project as starters, standing pat may well be the best strategy.
First base: Conor Jackson (Arb.), Mark Reynolds, Josh Whitesell
Whitesell is a quad-A player and Chad Tracy is a free agent, so the Diamondbacks could either turn Reynolds into a first baseman or look outside of the organization for a solution this winter. My guess is that they’ll leave Reynolds at third, given that he has the range for the position and he’s been even more error-prone than usual while playing first base this year. Jackson has appeared to be more valuable defensively in left field than he was at first base. More on him below.
Second base: Ryan Roberts, Augie Ojeda (Arb.), Rusty Ryal, Ruben Gotay, Mark Hallberg, James Skelton
Yes, it’s that bleak. Ryan, a 26-year-old hitting .286/.345/.500 in the PCL, figures to get a look at second base if the Diamondbacks trade free-agent-to-be Felipe Lopez. However, he should be nothing more than a fallback option again in 2009. Since Hallberg hasn’t hit in Double-A, the Diamondbacks should be in the market for a veteran second baseman for the second year in a row. Fortunately, decent ones are usually pretty easy to find.
Third base: Mark Reynolds, Augie Ojeda (Arb.), Ryan Roberts
If the Diamondbacks did move Reynolds across the diamond, they’d just have to go after a replacement at third instead. The club did draft third basemen with the 16th and 35th selections in the 2009 draft (Bobby Borchering and Matt Davidson), but both were high school players and neither will move quickly.
Shortstop: Stephen Drew (Arb.), Augie Ojeda, Pedro Ciriaco
One of the few positives for the Diamondbacks this year is that Drew’s fielding numbers have been considerably better than they were last year. I could see an argument for moving Drew to third and Reynolds to first, but it’s not something with any chance of happening in the near future. Besides, the Diamondbacks don’t have a Elvis Andrus to break in at short.
Left field: Conor Jackson (Arb.), Gerardo Parra, Eric Byrnes, Trent Oeltjen, Cyle Hankerd, Collin Cowgill
Center field: Chris Young, Gerardo Parra, Eric Byrnes
Right field: Justin Upton, Gerardo Parra, Eric Byrnes
We know Upton is a fixture in right. The Diamondbacks will have to decide whether it’s worth trading Young or moving Jackson back to first base to make room for Parra in the 2010 outfield. The 22-year-old Parra got off to a very nice start after coming up as Jackson’s replacement this year, but he’s now sporting a .259/.302/.400 line and given that he’s never played in Triple-A, he still might need some additional seasoning.
Complicating things is that both Young and Jackson have lost a great deal of trade value. Young showed clear signs of bouncing back from a horrendous start last month, but he’ll have to keep it up if the Diamondbacks are going to get fair value for him this season. Unfortunately, it looks like Jackson’s season has been completely ruined by his case of valley fever, but at least that means he’s not going to receive much of a raise from his current $3 million salary.
The Diamondbacks are almost certainly stuck with Byrnes, who figures to remain an $11 million fourth outfielder.
I think a Jackson-Young-Upton outfield will be the best option at the beginning of 2010. However, Parra would likely guarantee himself a spot with a strong second half.
Rotation: Brandon Webb (option), Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Jon Garland (option), Jarrod Parker, Yusmeiro Petit, Esmerling Vasquez, Cesar Valdez, Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein, Barry Enright
If Webb can come back from his shoulder problems in September, then the $6 million decision on his 2010 option will remain an easy call. Still, it’s not like the Diamondbacks will be able to pencil him in for 220 innings next year.
The uncertainty around Webb is probably the one thing that could cause the Diamondbacks to listen to offers for Haren. A team with a Webb-Haren-Scherzer front three should be capable of competing next year. However, if the Diamondbacks suddenly learned that Webb needed surgery that would cost him at least part of next year, they’d have to give serious thought to cashing in Haren for the huge return he’d bring in. He’s under control through 2013 at fairly reasonable terms.
The Diamondbacks, though, won’t really know about Webb’s health until the final month, making a Haren deadline deal awfully unlikely.
Doug Davis is a free agent and is likely to be traded. Garland is on a mutual option, making it unlikely that he’ll be back. Ideally, the Diamondbacks will replace him with a similar fourth-starter type and then get by with a Petit or Valdez in the fifth spot until Parker arrives. He could be next year’s Tommy Hanson.
Bullpen: Chad Qualls, Tony Pena (Arb.), Jon Rauch, Juan Gutierrez, Daniel Schlereth, Clay Zavada, Esmerling Vasquez, Billy Buckner, Yusmeiro Petit, Blaine Boyer (Arb.), Daniel Strange, Bobby Korecky, Doug Slaten, Leo Rosales, Jose Marte, Kyler Newby
Qualls is only under control through 2010 and could receive a raise to $4.5 million-$5 million in arbitration after spending a full year as a closer, so he might be the Diamondback most likely to go in a deadline deal. Rauch, now that he’s past his early-season woes, is next in line. That would potential leave Pena as the Diamondbacks’ closer, though he hasn’t made a particularly strong case for the role while posting a 4.36 ERA this season. Gutierrez would be another option. Schlereth, a left-hander picked in the first round last year, is the best bet for the long-term. If the Diamondbacks do move Qualls, they’ll probably look for a cheap veteran to serve as a stopgap closer next year.
Time for a best guess:
Arizona’s 2010 roster
Lineup
2B Free agent
SS Stephen Drew
RF Justin Upton
3B Mark Reynolds
1B Free agent
LF Conor Jackson
CF Chris Young
C Chris Snyder
Bench: OF Eric Byrnes, C Miguel Montero, INF Augie Ojeda, INF Ryan Roberts, OF Free agent
Rotation
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Max Scherzer
Free agent
Cesar Valdez
Bullpen
Free agent
Tony Pena
Juan Gutierrez
Clay Zavada
Free agent
Esmerling Vasquez
Billy Buckner
Ideally, the Diamondbacks will get their answer at first, second or in the rotation in return for Davis later this month. Qualls could also bring back someone capable of playing an important role on the 2010 club. There probably won’t be a whole lot of money available after raises for Drew, Young, Haren and Snyder kick in. One huge factor in how much flexibility the Diamondbacks will have is whether Reynolds qualifies as a super-two player. He’ll have two years and 138 days of service time at season’s end. Last year, Taylor Buchholz was the last player to qualify as a super two and he had two years, 140 days. With the season Reynolds is having, it could be a $5 million swing for the Diamondbacks.