Projecting the NL All-Star roster, Take 2

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Four weeks ago, I projected the following roster for the NL All-Star team (starters in bold):

C – Yadier Molina, Brian McCann, Bengie Molina
1B – Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez
2B – Chase Utley, Orlando Hudson, Freddy Sanchez
3B – David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones
SS – Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez
OF – Ryan Braun, Raul Ibanez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Brad Hawpe
P
– Johan Santana, Chad Billingsley, Tim Lincecum, Yovani Gallardo, Wandy
Rodriguez, Josh Johnson, Johnny Cueto, Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan
Broxton, Heath Bell, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero

Let’s look at the new vote totals and put together a better guess now.

Catchers

Starter: Yadier Molina
Backups: Brian McCann, Bengie Molina

If three catchers are chosen, it figures to be the same trio. Yadier
Molina has a nice edge on McCann in the balloting (1.85 million to 1.46
million), and McCann is a lock to be on the team either way. There
aren’t any other catchers truly deserving of a spot, but Bengie leads
the field in RBI and his team is playing very well.

First basemen

Starter: Albert Pujols
Backups: Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder

I went with just the two first basemen in the first projection, but
it’s going to be very difficult to deny Fielder and Gonzalez is still
very deserving, even if he’s no longer hitting a homer a day. My guess
is that Pujols and Gonzalez will be named to the team and Fielder will
win the fan vote for the last spot on the roster. It’s just too bad
there’s no DH. Ideally, Pujols would get to play the entire game at
Busch Stadium, but that can’t happen now.

Second basemen

Starter: Chase Utley
Backups: Brandon Phillips, Freddy Sanchez

I’m still going with the three second basemen, but Phillips is
replacing Orlando Hudson for one of the spots. Hudson has been just as
valuable this year, but Phillips has the sexier numbers, with his 11
homers and 51 RBI. Sanchez makes a ton of sense as the lone Pirate on
the team, though Zach Duke also has a case.

Third basemen

Starter: David Wright
Backups: Mark Reynolds

Wright has locked up the starting spot, leaving quite a competition
for perhaps just one reserve spot. Reynolds (916 OPS, 21 HR, 54 RBI),
Pablo Sandoval (965 OPS, 11 HR, 38 RBI), Chipper Jones (884 OPS, 9 HR,
33 RBI) and Ryan Zimmerman (861 OPS, 12 HR, 43 RBI) are all deserving,
and Zimmerman has the big advantage in that he could be the only
National selected. Reynolds will probably make the squad, and Chipper’s
career should outweigh Sandoval’s hot streak if the NL finds room for
three third basemen.

Shortstops

Starter: Hanley Ramirez
Backup: Miguel Tejada

The balloting was very close between Jimmy Rollins and Ramirez when
it was time to make the first projection, and I had Rollins winning the
vote. Now that Ramirez has a 255,000-vote lead, we no longer have to
worry about that possibility, and Rollins has no chance of making the
squad as a backup with the way he’s performed. Tejada is hitting .330
and has driven in 41 runs, giving him a pretty good case for the backup
job. Besides Ramirez and Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki is the only NL
shortstop with an 800 OPS.

Outfielders

Starters: Ryan Braun, Raul Ibanez, Carlos Beltran
Backups: Justin Upton, Adam Dunn, Brad Hawpe, Matt Kemp

I’d like to cut an outfielder to make room for a third third baseman, but seven figure to go.

The last outfield spot would seem to be the only one still up for
grabs in the NL. The injured Beltran currently has a 170,000-vote edge
on the struggling Alfonso Soriano. Beltran might not be able to play
even if he does win the vote, but I’m still rooting for him. Not only
is Soriano undeserving, but his addition would likely cause the NL to
put two center fielders on the bench and none have truly earned in.
Kemp is a stretch for one spot, and Shane Victorino would likely be
next in line.

If Beltran is on the team, then we could have a situation in which
the NL’s top six outfielders in OPS are all represented. Ibanez is
first, followed by Hawpe, Braun, Upton, Beltran and Dunn.

Pitchers

Starters: Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Johan Santana, Matt Cain, Javier Vazquez
Relievers: Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Broxton, Heath Bell, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero, Ryan Franklin

Now that we’re closer to the game, we can see what starters might be
unavailable to pitch in the All-Star Game because they’re scheduled to
work the Sunday before. Matt Cain, Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo,
Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright all appear set to pitch then and could be
scratched from consideration as a result. For that reason, I’m going
with six starters and six relievers. Too many of the deserving starters
are likely to be unable to pitch.

2017 World Series Preview: How the Astros and Dodgers match up

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The Dodgers are seeking their first World Series championship in 29 years. The Astros are seeking their first in the franchise’s 56-season history. Clayton Kershaw is making his first appearance on baseball’s biggest stage. Justin Verlander is making his third, but looking for his first ring. The Astros two aces are facing the Dodgers’ deep lineup. The Dodgers power throwing bullpen will face off against the Astros powerful lineup. For the first time in 47 years each team in the World Series won 100 games in the regular season.

Stars taking on stars. Power facing power. History, of one kind or another, somewhere between five and nine days from being made. It’s the Fall Classic, and it gets underway tonight. Here’s how it all breaks down:

 

THE ROTATIONS

It’s a bit of a shame that the rotations didn’t line up in order to give us a Verlander-Kershaw battle in Game 1, as it’s not every day you see two pitchers who each won an MVP Award face off. We’re still going to get some great matchups of staters here, however, as Kershaw — who still has something to prove as a big-game pitcher, his pennant-clinching Game 5 NLCS victory notwithstanding — meets 2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel in tonight’s Game 1. Game 2 gives us Rich Hill, who has remade himself into one of baseball’s best in the latter stages of his career, against Verlander, who many though his best days were behind him. That was before his trade to Houston and his 9-0 run for the Astros that culminated in a couple of the most dominant postseason starts in recent memory.

The back end of the rotations, featuring Yu Darvish and Alex Wood for L.A. and Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers for Houston, are pretty evenly matched. At their best the Dodgers back two are probably better, but they have each been touched at times late in the season while both Morton and McCullers found a new gear in the ALCS. Whether driving at that gear has them low on gas at the moment is an open question. ADVANTAGE DODGERS.

 

THE LINEUPS

The Dodgers’ lineup has been top heavy in the postseason, but the top has been really, really heavy, so it’s been just fine. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Yasiel Puig have been nearly impossible to pitch to. Fill-in shortstop Charlie Culberson was a revelation in Corey Seager‘s injury absence, but Seager’s back is better and he will be back for the World Series. The bottom half of the lineup has not come through too often — Kiké Hernandez’s big NLCS Game 5 notwithstanding — with left field (Andre Ethier/Hernandez/Curtis Granderson) second base (Logan Forsythe/Chase Utley) and catcher (Austin Barnes, who has pushed Yasmani Grandal to the bench) struggling. The Dodgers can win it all if the top half of the lineup continues doing what it’s doing, but given how slumps can hit at any time, Dave Roberts would like to see a new postseason star emerge.

The Astros bats need no introduction, but they could use a bit more consistency in the postseason. Houston led the majors in runs, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, were second in homers and struck out less than any team in baseball. The Yankees kept them quiet in the first five games of the ALCS but they roared back to life in Games 6 and 7. The attack will be keyed, as always, by possible AL MVP Jose Altuve, leadoff power source George Springer and shortstop Carlos Correa. As Houston showed all season, however, almost everyone in this lineup is dangerous.  ADVANTAGE ASTROS.

 

THE BULLPENS

This is probably the biggest separator between the clubs, with the Dodgers sporting a big advantage. Unlike in postseasons past, Dave Roberts has not had to use Clayton Kershaw or his other starters as relievers. This is due in part to the Dodgers taking care of their business quickly, sweeping the Dbacks in the NLDS and beating the Cubs in five in the NLCS. It’s mostly, though, due to the uncharacteristic depth and power of L.A’s relief corps. They didn’t allow a run against the Cubs in 17 innings of work in the NLCS.

Kenley Jansen needs no introduction. He continues to be one of the best if not the best closer in the game. Roberts will not hesitate to use him for multiple innings if need be. Has retired 24 of the 28 batters he has faced in the playoffs. He’s yet to be challenged. Hard throwing Brandon Morrow looks like an ace closer this postseason. Kenta Maeda has been a revelation as a setup man who can go multiple innings if need be. Tony Cingrani, Tony Watson and Josh Fields have not been used heavily, but each provides Roberts with an embarrassment of matchup possibilities.

Houston has talent in their pen, but it’s been somewhat shaky in the postseason. Chris Devenski, Will Harris and Joe Musgrove were all gotten to by Yankees hitters in the ALCS. Ken Giles has been OK, but not dominant, and A.J. Hinch has leaned a bit heavier than usual on him at times. More tellingly, Hinch has leaned on starters in relief, using Justin Verlander in that role in the ALDS against the Red Sox and using McCullers for four innings of relief in Game 7 of the ALCS. Hinch’s best hope is that he gets a lot of innings from Keuchel and Verlander in Games 1 and 2 and then has everyone in the pen well-rested for he middle games of the Series. If not, he’s going to be doing a lot of shuffling and, yes, we may see a lot of short rest work from starters in relief roles. ADVANTAGE DODGERS.

 

THE MANAGERS

Dave Roberts is the reigning NL Manager of the Year and both he and A.J. Hinch has a good shot of winning the award this year. Neither man has been second guessed very often in this postseason, as Roberts has not had to gamble at all and Hinch’s gambles have largely paid off. Unlike in some years, there are few dramatic storylines and little philosophical tension at play here. Both of these guys played the game, both work well with analytically-minded front offices yet both have shown that they have a free hand to use their instincts to make changes on the fly and manage the game on the field rather than simply carry out a game plan. If either of these two guys make themselves into a big story in this series it’ll be pretty surprising. EVEN.

 

THE BENCHES

The Dodgers lineup is a bit more fluid than Houston’s, with Roberts subbing in different guys at left field and second base in various postseason games. As such, if they’re not starting they may be a bit more game-ready than your usual benchwarmer. Houston tends to roll with the same lineup most nights, but Hinch has some flexibility at catcher where Evan Gattis and Brian McCann are both options and at DH in the home games, where either of them or Carlos Beltran can see action. ADVANTAGE DODGERS.

 

X-FACTOR

We don’t put much stock in intangibles, history or dramatic storylines when it comes to the World Series. We’ll leave that to the producers at Fox. Buy we will throw one wild card into the mix: home field advantage.

It’s not often the most important thing going in baseball, but it’s been an usually big boost in the 2017 postseason. Home teams are 23-8 (.742) this October, which is the best mark since the playoffs expanded to include Wild Card teams. So far the Astros are 6-0 in Houston and the Dodgers are 4-0 in Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, likewise, had the best home record in all of baseball in the regular season. L.A. hasn’t yet had to bring a playoff series back home after it began, but the chance to host four home games in a best of seven may loom a bit larger this year than most. Oh, and keep an eye on guys’ stamina levels in Games 1 and 2. It’s gonna be close to 100 degrees at Dodger Stadium at game time for each of those tiltsADVANTAGE DODGERS.

 

PREDICTION

This is the matchup many of us were hoping for as early as late July. The Dodgers swooned in late August and early September, but the fact that they still won 104 games tells you just how dominant a club they were in 2017. While the Indians had the AL’s best record thanks to their late season winning streak, the Astros were, in our view, the best team in the American League all season long. This is the first matchup of 100-win teams in the Fall Classic in 47 years. It is, quite simply, the best on-paper World Series matchup we’ve had in many, many years. It’s sad someone has to lose this thing, but that’s how it goes.

Los Angeles hasn’t had to come back to Dodger Stadium to finish off a series yet. We don’t think they’ll be that lucky this time around, but we do think that their bullpen gives them a clear advantage and will work to neutralize those dangerous Astros bats in the final 3-4 innings of every game. That’s enough daylight for us to say that, in our view it’ll be . . .

DODGERS IN SIX