Joe Morgan, Jerry Manuel and no-brainers

Leave a comment

No, I’m not just being redundant.

Certainly according to Joe Morgan and Steve Phillips, it was the
easiest decision of all-time: walk Derek Jeter to get to Mariano
Rivera. Men on first and second, two outs, one of the game’s most
clutchtastic players at the plate or bases loaded and Rivera batting
for the third time in 15 years as a major leaguer. The announcers were
positively stunned when Francisco Rodriguez threw his first pitch to
Jeter a bit off the outside corner for a generous strike one call. Two
balls further outside and finally two intentional balls followed,
setting it up for Rivera to hit with the bases loaded.

Of course, Rivera went on to walk, giving the Yankees a two-run
cushion. Morgan and Phillips had never even mentioned it as a
possibility and perhaps even a reason not to put Jeter on
automatically. I agreed with the idea of walking Jeter, but I’m not
sure it’s quite as clear cut as it was made out to be.

In his major league career, K-Rod has limited hitters to a
.164/.244/.221 line with men on first and second. The typical hitter
has a one-in-six chance of getting a hit against him in that situation.
Now Derek Jeter isn’t the typical hitter. He had five singles and four
walks in 14 career plate appearances against K-Rod. Suffice to say, he
did have a better than one-in-six chance of getting a hit in the
situation. However, K-Rod had an advantage as well, in that he didn’t
have to give Jeter anything to hit. He could have continued working
Jeter very carefully and backed up that fastball off the corner with a
heater up and then a slider low and away. Jeter likely would have
expanded his strike zone, knowing that Rivera was up next. It’s
possible that K-Rod could have retired him without ever having to throw
a strike.

But instead, we had Mariano Rivera up with the bases loaded. The
league has hit .233/.338/.400 against K-Rod with the bases loaded in
his career. Rivera, while an amazing athlete, probably isn’t a league
average hitter. He doesn’t have bad form in the box, but I don’t think
I’d want to count on him batting any better than .050 against K-Rod. If
he was going to reach, it’d be far more likely to come via the walk.

And I think there was always a real possibility that it would happen.

This is just another guess, but I imagine the typical major league
pitcher can, if he’s not trying to do anything else, throw his fastball
for a strike a little better than 90 percent of the time. Maybe not
quite 95 percent — I’ve seen too many 3-0 walks to believe that — but
90-92 seems reasonable. With K-Rod, I’d say it’s a lot closer to 60-70.
He’s just different. Much of the time, he seems to have better command
of his get-me-over slider than his fastball. But he never tried one of
them against Rivera. After all, Rivera might have gotten lucky and
timed one of those. He probably wasn’t going to put a fastball into

My argument is based on this: there are pretty much three base
situations in which you especially don’t want to issue walks, when a
man is on first, when men are on first and second (and Mariano Rivera
isn’t on deck) and when the bases are loaded. K-Rod has unintentionally
walked 54 in 515 plate appearances in those situations (10.5 percent).
The rest of the time, he’s unintentionally walked 141 in 1,469 plate
appearances (9.6 percent). K-Rod simply has no ability to start
throwing strikes when he needs to. He’s an outstanding pitcher anyway,
but it’s still because he’s so difficult to hit. Unfortunately, the
intentional walk to Jeter put him in a situation in which he didn’t
have to give up a hit to allow a run.

I still think it was the right move. Even if we go based on my
theory that K-Rod was just as likely to walk Mariano Rivera there as he
would have been Alex Rodriguez, that 10 percent chance and the maybe
five percent chance of Rivera getting a hit doesn’t top Jeter’s chances
of getting a hit. However, I do think Mets manager Jerry Manuel should
take something from sequence. Asking K-Rod to issue an intentional walk
is typically the wrong strategy, and it’s not a good sign that K-Rod
has already had four this year, matching his total from 2007 and 2008

Video: Jonathan Lucroy who? Roberto Perez homers twice in World Series opener for the Indians

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 25:  Roberto Perez #55 of the Cleveland Indians hits a three-run home run during the eighth inning against the Chicago Cubs in Game One of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on October 25, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Back in July, then-Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy vetoed a trade that would have sent him to the Indians, helping the club make a significant upgrade behind the plate after losing Yan Gomes to an injury. At the time, Roberto Perez had only played in 11 games, batting .043. Gomes had hit .165 before his injury, and Chris Gimenez batted .202 over 42 games. It was not much of a logical leap to think the Indians would eventually falter due to a lack of production at the catching position.

But here the Indians are in the World Series facing the Cubs. In Game 1 on Tuesday night, Perez — who finished the season with a .183 average and three home runs in 184 plate appearances — drilled a pair of home runs, accounting for four of the six runs the Indians would score in a shutout win over the Cubs.

Perez’s first blast was a solo that that just cleared the left field fence at Progressive Field, coming on an 0-1 fastball from starter Jon Lester. That padded the Indians’ lead to 3-0.

The second homer put the game away, as he punished reliever Hector Rondon for hanging a 2-2 slider with two runners on base, slugging this one enough to clear the left field fence by plenty. That doubled the Indians’ lead to 6-0, the score by which they would eventually win.

Perez is the first catcher to homer twice in a World Series game since Gary Carter did it for the Mets against the Red Sox in the 1986 World Series. Perez is the first Indian to homer twice in the same playoff game since Jim Thome in the 1999 ALDS against the Red Sox.

Corey Kluber dazzles as Indians blank Cubs 6-0 in Game 1 of the World Series

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 25:  Corey Kluber #28 of the Cleveland Indians throws a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning in Game One of the 2016 World Series at Progressive Field on October 25, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Jamie Squire/Getty Images

From the moment Kris Bryant struck out looking for the second out of the first inning in Game 1 of the World Series, the Cubs knew Indians starter Corey Kluber brought his A-game and that they were in for a long night. Bryant was Kluber’s second strikeout victim in as many batters and he would go on to strike out eight batters through the first three innings, setting a World Series record.

The Indians, meanwhile, gave Kluber an early cushion, scoring twice in the bottom of the first inning. Francisco Lindor hit a two-out single, then stole second base against starter Jon Lester. Lester proceeded to walk Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana to load the bases. Jose Ramirez brought one run home with an infield single to the left of the pitcher’s mound. The lefty then hit Brandon Guyer with a pitch to force in another run, giving the Indians a 2-0 lead.

The Indians scored one more run in the fourth inning when catcher Roberto Perez snuck a solo home run over the fence in left field, victimizing Lester yet again.

The Cubs struggled to get any kind of momentum going, wasting a leadoff double by Ben Zobrist in the second inning and a two-out double by Kyle Schwarber in the fourth. Through six innings, Kluber yielded only three hits with zero walks and nine strikeouts. He took the mound to start the seventh but departed after Zobrist led off with a single to left field.

Reliever and ALCS MVP Andrew Miller entered the game, but the Cubs seemed to have a better time against him. Schwarber drew a walk and Javier Baez singled to left, loading the bases. At the very least, it seemed, Miller would give up at least one run, if not two. The average team scored two runs with the bases loaded and no outs, according to Baseball Prospectus. But Miller showed why he was named the MVP of the ALCS, getting Willson Contreras to fly out to shallow center. Schwarber thought the ball would drop, so he was way off the second base bag, but center fielder Rajai Davis didn’t notice and fired home to ensure a run didn’t score. Despite the mistake, Miller rebounded by striking out Addison Russell and David Ross to escape the inning with no damage done

Miller returned to the mound for the eighth inning for his second inning of work. After getting Dexter Fowler to fly out, he walked Bryant. Miller got Anthony Rizzo to fly out to shallow center, but Zobrist singled to center to put runners on first and third with two outs. On his 46th pitch of the night, Miller struck out Schwarber to escape the inning.

Perez decided to double the Indians’ lead to 6-0 in the bottom of the eighth. Cubs reliever Justin Grimm walked Guyer and allowed a single to Lonnie Chisenhall, forcing manager Joe Maddon to replace him with Hector Rondon. Rondon hung a 2-2 slider and Perez crushed it, this time clearing the fence by plenty for a three-run homer. He’s the first catcher with two homers in a World Series game since Gary Carter in 1986.

Closer Cody Allen, who thought he was going to be used in a save situation, took over in the top of the ninth. After striking out Baez, Contreras doubled to right field. Allen then struck out Russell as well as pinch-hitter Miguel Montero to end the game in a 6-0 victory for the Indians.

Game 2 of the World Series will start an hour earlier than usual on Wednesday due to forecasted inclement weather late at night. Jake Arrieta will make the start for the Cubs opposite the Indians’ Trevor Bauer.