Projections and Paces – Indians

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The article below is meant to provide a quick look at how my
preseason projections match up with the paces of select major league
hitters.

Victor Martinez
2008: .278/.337/.365, 2 HR, 30 R, 35 RBI, 0 SB in 266 AB
Proj..: .296/.368/.459, 19 HR, 71 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 538 AB
Pace: .345/.424/.550, 26 HR, 112 R, 119 RBI, 0 SB in 615 AB

Martinez is on pace for new career highs in every category except
steals. He actually did have one stolen base in his rookie season in
2003. He hasn’t even attempted one since 2005.

Mark DeRosa
2008: .285/.376/.481, 21 HR, 103 R, 87 RBI, 6 SB in 505 AB
Proj..: .271/.350/.411, 15 HR, 85 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 557 AB
Pace: .280/.348/.479, 31 HR, 110 R, 114 RBI, 0 SB in 612 AB

DeRosa has raised his average from .236 in April to .291 in May to
.323 so far this month. His trade value is increasing as well.

Shin-Soo Choo
2008: .309/.397/.549, 14 HR, 68 R, 66 RBI, 4 SB in 317 AB
Proj..: .287/.367/.459, 15 HR, 84 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB in 516 AB
Pace: .297/.409/.464, 21 HR, 100 R, 98 RBI, 26 SB in 569 AB

Stolen from the Mariners for Ben Broussard two years ago, Choo has
turned into one of Cleveland’s building blocks. He is currently
sporting a .293/.388/.484 line in 748 major league at-bats, and he’s a
perfect 11-for-11 in his steal attempts this season.

Jhonny Peralta
2008: .276/.331/.473, 23 HR, 104 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
Proj..: .273/.343/.449, 21 HR, 89 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 583 AB
Pace: .252/.331/.338, 5 HR, 45 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 529 AB

It looked like Peralta came out of his early-season funk when he hit
.316 in May, but his average is down again recently and he still hasn’t
found his power stroke. The Indians seem pretty frustrated, but it’s
not like they can give up on him. A return to form remains likely.

Ben Francisco
2008: .266/.332/.438, 15 HR, 65 R, 54 RBI, 4 SB in 447 AB
Proj..: .271/.333/.432, 12 HR, 60 R, 63 RBI, 13 SB in 431 AB
Pace: .233/.297/.372, 12 HR, 67 R, 55 RBI, 24 SB in 512 AB

Francisco, on the other hand, needs to be turned into a fourth
outfielder. It could well happen if Grady Sizemore returns. Also, the
Indians will want to give Matt LaPorta and Trevor Crowe real
opportunities after the break.

Asdrubal Cabrera
2008: .259/.346/.366, 6 HR, 48 R, 47 RBI, 4 SB in 352 AB
Proj..: .281/.352/.409, 10 HR, 77 R, 68 RBI, 9 SB in 531 AB
Pace: .316/.374/.427, 5 HR, 91 R, 64 RBI, 17 SB in 491 AB

Cabrera does fan quite a bit, so he wasn’t likely to keep up the
.316 average. Still, the Indians miss his offense and his defense even
more.

How long do you stay a fan of a team that left town?

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File this under “not a really deep thought, but there isn’t much going on this morning, so why not?”

I was catching up with the latest, and final, season of “The Americans” over the weekend. I will give no spoilers and ask that you do the same, but I want to talk about something that came up in the second episode.

The episode takes place in October 1987 and a character is listening to a Twins playoff game on the radio. He later talks about baseball and the Twins with some other characters. The context is not important, but the guy — probably in his mid-late 40s, living in the Washington D.C. area — makes a point to say that he has been a Twins fan since the beginning, and then says he was, in fact, a fan of the franchise back when they were still the Washington Senators.

In case you are unaware, the original Washington Senators moved to Minnesota following the 1960 season and became the Twins. At the same time an expansion team, also called the Senators, was placed in D.C. to replace them. That franchise would stay in D.C. for 11 seasons before moving to Texas in 1972 to become the Rangers.

In light if that, am I the only one who has a hard time buying that such a man actually existed? How would the character, who was a kid when the original Senators moved, be a Twins fan some 26 years later?

There were relatively few televised baseball games back then. Just a game of the week and some out of town coverage of local teams. There was obviously no internet. Outside of the 1965 World Series, it’d be a shock if more than a couple of Twins games were broadcast to the D.C. area during the rest of the guy’s childhood. Maybe he kept up with the Senators players like Harmon Killebrew and Bob Allison via box scores, baseball cards and The Sporting News, but I couldn’t imagine a D.C. guy raised on the Senators keeping up with the Twins through the 1970s and 1980s. Would he not become a new Senators fan or, eventually, a Rangers fan? Maybe, like so many people on the D.C. area, he picked up the Orioles as his team due to their 1960s-70s dominance? Any number of things could happen, but I’m struggling to imagine the existence of a Senators guy who becomes a hardcore Twins fans up to and including 1987.

All of that got me thinking about other relocated teams.

The Dodgers are the most famous example, of course, with the narrative being that Dodgers fans in Brooklyn felt betrayed by Walter O’Malley and thus turned their back on the club, later adopting the Mets as their rooting interest. The betrayal narrative is less pronounced with the Giants, but that’s the same general story with them too. I mean, there’s a reason the Mets picked orange and blue as their colors. They wanted to, and largely did, co-opt the old NL New York fans.

I’m sure a lot more Dodgers and Giants fans continued to follow their teams in California than would let on, given that many of the same players starred out there in the ensuing years, but that likely died out as those players retired. Bob Aspromonte was the last Brooklyn Dodger to play in the bigs, retiring after the 1971 season. Willie Mays played through 1973. I assume NL fans in New York kept some nice thoughts for them — particularly because the Mets picked both of them up for the tail end of their careers — but I can’t see those guys rooting for, say, Steve Garvey and John Montefusco in 1979.

Others:

  • There likely aren’t many St. Louis Browns fans left — they last played in Missouri 65 years ago — but even if the ones they had in 1953 felt like rooting for the Cardinals was impossible, I bet most of their kids and grandkids became Cards fans;
  • The A’s fans in Philly — and later Kansas City — probably have a similar story. I mean, there’s a reason that franchise skipped town twice, so to expect undying love over the decades, with the Phillies and Royals around, is a bit much. The Philadelphia A’s glory years were like 90s years ago now anyway, and all of those fans are dead. The A’s modern glory years have all come in Oakland. No one in Philadelphia or Kansas City is looking to the California with an aching in their heart;
  • I could imagine someone’s grandfather in Milwaukee still thinking that the Braves are his team, but not many other people. The Braves won a World Series and two pennants in Milwaukee, but that was an awful long time ago and they moved to Atlanta before the A’s moved to Oakland. Don’t even get me started about Boston Braves fans. They all have to either be dead or have long since moved on. Following a team to a new city is a big ask, but following them to two new cities over 66 years seems pathological. UPDATE: OK, there are some pathological people out there.
  • I have some Nationals fan friends and they tell me that there is a small, weird contingent of Expos fans who root for Washington now. I get that since it wasn’t terribly long ago, but was Brad Wilkerson really a good enough reason to carry a torch? I’d like to talk to some of those people and ask them about their value system;
  • The only other team to move was the Seattle Pilots. They played one season in Seattle and no one would remember that if it wasn’t for Jim Bouton’s book, “Ball Four.” If you find someone claiming to be a Pilots fan in Seattle, you’ve found yourself a hipster peddling revisionist b.s.

Anyway, that’s a lot of words wasted on a couple of lines from a TV show, but as always, your thoughts are appreciated.