Projections and Paces – Braves

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The article below is meant to provide a quick look at how my
preseason projections match up with the paces of select major league
hitters.

Chipper Jones
2008: .364/.470/.574, 22 HR, 82 R, 75 RBI, 4 SB in 439 AB
Proj..: .318/.425/.548, 23 HR, 84 R, 81 RBI, 3 SB in 434 AB
Pace: .308/.422/.514, 21 HR, 77 R, 80 RBI, 3 SB in 476 AB

As the other projections will indicate, I was expecting the Braves to
have a better offense than this. Chipper and Brian McCann are meeting
expectations, but they’re hardly piling up runs and RBI with two-thirds
of the lineup struggling to produce.

Brian McCann
2008: .301/.373/.523, 23 HR, 68 R, 87 RBI, 5 SB in 509 AB
Proj..: .296/.365/.509, 23 HR, 66 R, 90 RBI, 3 SB in 483 AB
Pace: .331/.424/.530, 15 HR, 46 R, 67 RBI, 5 SB in 388 AB

McCann is hitting .351 with RISP and is 3-for-4 with the bases
loaded, so it’s hardly his fault that he’s been limited to 26 RBI in
151 at-bats. Scoring runs has been an even bigger problem, as he’s been
driven in just 12 times after his 33 singles, 10 doubles, one triple
and 22 walks.

Yunel Escobar
2008: .288/.366/.401, 10 HR, 71 R, 60 RBI, 2 SB in 514 AB
Proj..: .295/.361/.430, 13 HR, 82 R, 70 RBI, 7 SB in 556 AB
Pace: .286/.348/.432, 15 HR, 90 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB in 566 AB

The only other Brave living up the expectations, even if he has put himself into Bobby Cox’s doghouse with his mental miscues.

Jeff Francoeur
2008: .239/.294/.359, 11 HR, 70 R, 71 RBI, 0 SB in 599 AB
Proj..: .279/.332/.453, 22 HR, 78 R, 95 RBI, 4 SB in 605 AB
Pace: .250/.282/.343, 10 HR, 69 R, 77 RBI, 8 SB in 607 AB

6/7 K/BB ratio in 67 at-bats this spring. 35/10 K/BB ratio in 236
at-bats this season. And the biggest issue at all is that he still
thinks he has the right approach at the plate.

Casey Kotchman
2008: .272/.328/.410, 14 HR, 65 R, 74 RBI, 2 SB in 525 AB
Proj..: .303/.369/.470, 15 HR, 64 R, 73 RBI, 3 SB in 485 AB
Pace: .284/.349/.409, 5 HR, 39 R, 62 RBI, 0 SB in 453 AB

Not that he’s showing much power against righties either, but
Kotchman seems to have nothing but weak at-bats against left-handers.
It’s pretty surprising, given that he was better against lefties than
righties last year and also pretty good against them in 2007.

Kelly Johnson
2008: .287/.349/.446, 12 HR, 86 R, 69 RBI, 11 SB in 547 AB
Proj..: .276/.360/.447, 16 HR, 87 R, 75 RBI, 10 SB in 555 AB
Pace: .233/.296/.390, 13 HR, 77 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB in 540 AB

Johnson, on the other hand, has had all of his success in
lefty-lefty matchups. He has a 935 OPS against lefties and a 593 mark
against righties. He’s better than this, but he’s 27 now and he still
hasn’t put it all together for a full season.

Yankees’ offense wakes up, leads way to 8-1 win vs. Astros in ALCS Game 3

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The Yankees’ offense finally woke up, scoring eight runs in Game 3 of the ALCS on Monday night while the pitching kept the Astros’ offense at bay. That came after scoring a total of two runs against Astros pitching in the first two games. For a recap of the Yankees’ scoring in Game 3, click here.

CC Sabathia wasn’t dominant, but he executed pitches when he needed to most, preventing the Astros from capitalizing on their opportunities. Overall, he gave up three hits and four walks while striking out five on 99 pitches. He’s the first pitcher, age 37 or older, to throw six shutout innings in the postseason since Pedro Martinez for the Phillies against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the 2009 NLCS. Monday’s start also marked Sabathia’s first career scoreless outing in the postseason — it was his 22nd postseason appearance.

Astros starter Charlie Morton couldn’t escape the fourth inning, when he allowed a run and loaded the bases before departing. Will Harris allowed all three inherited runners to score on Aaron Judge‘s three-run home run to left field. Morton was ultimately charged with seven runs on six hits, two walks, and a hit batsman with three strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings.

The Yankees’ bullpen held the fort after the sixth. Adam Warren worked a scoreless seventh. Warren returned in the eighth and retired the side in order, despite yielding a pair of well-struck balls to deep center field.

In the ninth, Dellin Betances walked both hitters he faced to start the frame. Unsurprisingly, manager Joe Girardi had a short leash and brought in Tommy Kahnle. Kahnle gave up a single to Cameron Maybin then struck out George Springer, but walked Alex Bregman to force in a run. Kahnle got Jose Altuve to ground into a 4-3 double play to end the game in an 8-1 victory, giving the Yankees their first win of the series.

The ALCS continues on Tuesday at 5 PM ET. The Astros will start Lance McCullers and the Yankees will send Sonny Gray to the hill.