Projections and Paces – Athletics

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The article below is meant to provide a quick look at how my
preseason projections match up with the paces of select major league
hitters.

Matt Holliday
2008: .321/.409/.538, 25 HR, 107 R, 88 RBI, 28 SB in 539 AB
Proj..: .294/.386/.518, 28 HR, 99 R, 109 RBI, 13 SB in 585 AB
Pace: .275/.376/.437, 21 HR, 82 R, 95 RBI, 10 SB in 589 AB

It was mostly just a bad April. Holliday is hitting .292 with seven homers in 44 games since the beginning of May.

Jack Cust
2008: .231/.375/.476, 33 HR, 77 R, 77 RBI, 0 SB in 481 AB
Proj..: .230/.379/.460, 28 HR, 70 R, 79 RBI, 0 SB in 461 AB
Pace: .228/.320/.423, 28 HR, 90 R, 87 RBI, 3 SB in 553 AB

I don’t think Cust’s attempt to be more aggressive at the plate is
paying off. Cust walked 19 percent of the time and struck out in 33
percent of his plate appearances last year. This year, he’s down to 12
percent and 24 percent, respectively. Unfortunately, the weaker
strikeout rate isn’t resulting in more singles, much less additional
home runs.

Orlando Cabrera
2008: .281/.334/.371, 8 HR, 93 R, 57 RBI, 19 SB in 661 AB
Proj..: .267/.320/.363, 6 HR, 79 R, 66 RBI, 16 SB in 589 AB
Pace: .229/.283/.292, 5 HR, 75 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB in 651 AB

I thought Cabrera would play poorly enough to force the A’s to hit him
lower in the order. He’s actually been far worse than expected, yet
he’s still received all but six of his at-bats in the first and second
spots in the lineup.

Jason Giambi
2008: .247/.373/.502, 32 HR, 68 R, 96 RBI, 2 SB in 458 AB
Proj..: .240/.377/.453, 23 HR, 61 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 404 AB
Pace: .212/.344/.394, 23 HR, 82 R, 87 RBI, 0 SB in 522 AB

Oddly, two-thirds of Giambi’s nine homers have come against lefties.
Over the course of his career, 76 percent of his homers had come versus
righties. He’s hitting just .205/.344/.311 against righties this
season.

Ryan Sweeney
2008: .286/.350/.383, 5 HR, 53 R, 45 RBI, 9 SB in 384 AB
Proj..: .276/.345/.408, 11 HR, 80 R, 59 RBI, 8 SB in 529 AB
Pace: .246/.313/.319, 5 HR, 51 R, 39 RBI, 10 SB in 491 AB

Sweeney has proven to be a fine defensive center fielder, so he
deserves to stay in Oakland’s lineup, at least against right-handers.
He’s hitting .169 in 59 at-bats against lefties this year.

Kurt Suzuki
2008: .279/.346/.370, 7 HR, 54 R, 42 RBI, 2 SB in 530 AB
Proj..: .265/.334/.376, 9 HR, 52 R, 57 RBI, 1 SB in 479 AB
Pace: .274/.325/.395, 8 HR, 69 R, 57 RBI, 8 SB in 553 AB

Suzuki started 136 games behind the plate last year, good for third
in baseball behind Jason Kendall and Russell Martin. He’s on pace for
that exact same number this season.

Report: Teams reluctant to gamble on Cliff Lee

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park Thursday, July 31, 2014, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
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In Saturday’s column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo suggests that free agent Cliff Lee is seeking a guaranteed major league deal between $6 and $8 million plus incentives. That is turning some otherwise interested teams away, as the lefty is still recovering from a torn flexor tendon in his left elbow. Lee hasn’t pitched since July 31, 2014.

Last month, Lee’s agent Darek Braunecker said the pitcher would need “a perfect fit” to pitch in 2016. He also noted that Lee has begun a full offseason throwing program.

In his most recent season, Lee compiled a 3.65 ERA with 72 strikeouts and 12 walks in 81 1/3 innings for the Phillies. The Phillies had signed him to a five-year, $120 million contract in December 2010 but declined a club option for the 2016 season, instead buying him out for $12.5 million.

Orioles reconsidering signing Yovani Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
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In an article for MASN on Friday, Steve Melewski noted that the Orioles were reluctant to forfeit their first round draft pick (14th overall) in order to sign free agent starter Yovani Gallardo. The club is now reconsidering its stance and rechecking the right-handers medicals, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports.

Gallardo, who turns 30 on February 27, posted a 3.42 ERA with 121 strikeouts and 68 walks over 184 1/3 innings for the Rangers last season. The Rangers had acquired him in a trade with the Brewers, sending Luis Sardinas, Corey Knebel, and minor leaguer Marcos Diplan to Milwaukee.

Gallardo has posted an ERA below 4.00 in six of his last seven seasons. He remains unsigned into February, however, because his strikeout rate has rapidly decreased with each year since 2012. Per FanGraphs, that rate was 23.7 percent in 2012, then went to 18.6 percent, 17.9 percent, and 15.3 percent progressively. Some of that may have to do with diminishing fastball velocity, as Gallardo’s 90.4 MPH average marked a career low among his eight full seasons with at least 100 innings pitched.

The Orioles lost starter Wei-Yin Chen, who signed with the Marlins, and the back end of their rotation is highly speculative with Kevin Gausman, Mike Wright, Odrisamer Despaigne, and Tyler Wilson. Adding a veteran like Gallardo, even if he is apparently declining, may be stabilizing.

Freddy Garcia is calling it a career

Screenshot 2016-02-07 at 10.16.43 AM
Elsa/Getty Images North America
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MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez passes along word from the Dominican Republic that right-hander Freddy Garcia will hang up his cleats for good after Sunday’s Caribbean Series championship game.

Garcia will start that game for the Tigres de Aragua out of Venezuela. He’s taking on Mexico’s Venados de Mazatlan.

“Venezuelan fans are expecting something good from Freddy and so is everybody,” said Tigres de Aragua manager Eddie Perez, who also serves as the bullpen coach for the Atlanta Braves. “Knowing that it’s his last game is going to make it very special. We all hope he pitches a really good game so he can retire in a good way and bring the title for Venezuela. Everybody who is rooting for Venezuela expects him to do well.”

Garcia’s last major league game was in the 2013 postseason. The 39-year-0ld will finish with a 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 6.4 K/9 in 2,264 career regular-season innings. He had a 3.26 ERA in 11 playoff starts, winning a World Series title with the White Sox in 2005.

Video: 2016 will be a season to remember

Carlos+Correa+Houston+Astros+v+Arizona+Diamondbacks+Ctyu5RiU3SWl
Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America
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MLB.com put together this very cool video montage reviewing the 2015 season and setting us up for what should be a wild 2016. Young stars, veterans chasing milestones, unpredictable divisional races.

It’s so close to spring training. Let’s do this.