Projections and Paces – Athletics

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The article below is meant to provide a quick look at how my
preseason projections match up with the paces of select major league
hitters.

Matt Holliday
2008: .321/.409/.538, 25 HR, 107 R, 88 RBI, 28 SB in 539 AB
Proj..: .294/.386/.518, 28 HR, 99 R, 109 RBI, 13 SB in 585 AB
Pace: .275/.376/.437, 21 HR, 82 R, 95 RBI, 10 SB in 589 AB

It was mostly just a bad April. Holliday is hitting .292 with seven homers in 44 games since the beginning of May.

Jack Cust
2008: .231/.375/.476, 33 HR, 77 R, 77 RBI, 0 SB in 481 AB
Proj..: .230/.379/.460, 28 HR, 70 R, 79 RBI, 0 SB in 461 AB
Pace: .228/.320/.423, 28 HR, 90 R, 87 RBI, 3 SB in 553 AB

I don’t think Cust’s attempt to be more aggressive at the plate is
paying off. Cust walked 19 percent of the time and struck out in 33
percent of his plate appearances last year. This year, he’s down to 12
percent and 24 percent, respectively. Unfortunately, the weaker
strikeout rate isn’t resulting in more singles, much less additional
home runs.

Orlando Cabrera
2008: .281/.334/.371, 8 HR, 93 R, 57 RBI, 19 SB in 661 AB
Proj..: .267/.320/.363, 6 HR, 79 R, 66 RBI, 16 SB in 589 AB
Pace: .229/.283/.292, 5 HR, 75 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB in 651 AB

I thought Cabrera would play poorly enough to force the A’s to hit him
lower in the order. He’s actually been far worse than expected, yet
he’s still received all but six of his at-bats in the first and second
spots in the lineup.

Jason Giambi
2008: .247/.373/.502, 32 HR, 68 R, 96 RBI, 2 SB in 458 AB
Proj..: .240/.377/.453, 23 HR, 61 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 404 AB
Pace: .212/.344/.394, 23 HR, 82 R, 87 RBI, 0 SB in 522 AB

Oddly, two-thirds of Giambi’s nine homers have come against lefties.
Over the course of his career, 76 percent of his homers had come versus
righties. He’s hitting just .205/.344/.311 against righties this
season.

Ryan Sweeney
2008: .286/.350/.383, 5 HR, 53 R, 45 RBI, 9 SB in 384 AB
Proj..: .276/.345/.408, 11 HR, 80 R, 59 RBI, 8 SB in 529 AB
Pace: .246/.313/.319, 5 HR, 51 R, 39 RBI, 10 SB in 491 AB

Sweeney has proven to be a fine defensive center fielder, so he
deserves to stay in Oakland’s lineup, at least against right-handers.
He’s hitting .169 in 59 at-bats against lefties this year.

Kurt Suzuki
2008: .279/.346/.370, 7 HR, 54 R, 42 RBI, 2 SB in 530 AB
Proj..: .265/.334/.376, 9 HR, 52 R, 57 RBI, 1 SB in 479 AB
Pace: .274/.325/.395, 8 HR, 69 R, 57 RBI, 8 SB in 553 AB

Suzuki started 136 games behind the plate last year, good for third
in baseball behind Jason Kendall and Russell Martin. He’s on pace for
that exact same number this season.

Jackie Robinson: ” I cannot stand and sing the anthem. I cannot salute the flag”

FILE - In this April 11, 1947 file photo, Jackie Robinson of the Brooklyn Dodgers poses at Ebbets Field in the Brooklyn borough of New York. Robinson's widow said Major League Baseball has yet to fully honor her husband's legacy. "There is a lot more that needs to be done and that can be done in terms of the hiring, the promotion" of minorities in the sport, Rachel Robinson said Monday, Jan. 18, 2016 during a Q&A session with TV critics about "Jackie Robinson," a two-part PBS documentary airing in April.  (AP Photo/John Rooney, File)
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One more bit of baseball via which we may reflect on the Colin Kaepernick controversy.

In 1972 Jackie Robinson wrote his autobiography. In it he reflected on how he felt about his historical legacy as a baseball player, a businessman and as a political activist. A political activism, it should be noted, which favored both sides of the aisle at various times. He supported Nixon in 1960, supported the war in Vietnam and worked for Nelson Rockefeller. He did not support Goldwater and did support the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He supported Humphrey against Nixon in 1968. He was no blind partisan or ideologue. When you find someone like that you can usually rest assured it’s because they’re thinking hard and thinking critically in a world where things aren’t always cut-and-dried.

As such, this statement from his autobiography, describing his memory of the first game of the 1947 World Series, is worth thinking about. Because it came from someone who spent a lot of time thinking:

There I was, the black grandson of a slave, the son of a black sharecropper, part of a historic occasion, a symbolic hero to my people. The air was sparkling. The sunlight was warm. The band struck up the national anthem. The flag billowed in the wind. It should have been a glorious moment for me as the stirring words of the national anthem poured from the stands. Perhaps, it was, but then again, perhaps, the anthem could be called the theme song for a drama called The Noble Experiment. Today, as I look back on that opening game of my first world series, I must tell you that it was Mr. Rickey’s drama and that I was only a principal actor. As I write this twenty years later, I cannot stand and sing the anthem. I cannot salute the flag; I know that I am a black man in a white world. In 1972, in 1947, at my birth in 1919, I know that I never had it made.

Colin Kaepernick is not Jackie Robinson and America in 2016 is not the same as America in 1919, 1947 or 1972. But it does not take one of Jackie Robinson’s stature or experience to see and take issue with injustice and inequality which manifestly still exists.

As I said in the earlier post, the First Amendment gives us just as much right to criticize Kaepernick as it gives him a right to protest in the manner in which he chooses. But if and when we do, we should not consider his case in a vacuum or criticize him as some singular or radical actor. Because some other people — people who have been elevated to a level which has largely immunized them from criticism — felt and feel the same way he does. It’s worth asking yourself, if you take issue, whether you take issue with the message or the messenger and why. Such inquiries might complicate one’s feelings on the matter, but they’re quite illuminative as well.

(thanks to Kokujin for the heads up)

Former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt is a sports owner once again

File photo of Frank McCourt leaving Stanley Mosk Courthouse after testifying during his divorce trial in Los Angeles
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There aren’t many major league ownership reigns which ended more ignominiously than Frank McCourt’s reign as Dodgers owner. He was granted access to one of business’ most exclusive clubs — one which being a convicted criminal or even a Nazi sympathizer cannot get you kicked out of — and somehow got kicked out. The clear lesson from his saga was that saddling your team with debt, using it as your own private piggy bank and exercising bad judgment at every possible turn will not get you drummed out of baseball but, by gum, having it all go public in a divorce case sure as heck will.

McCourt landed pretty safely, though. By sheer luck, his being kicked out of ownership coincided with the vast appreciation of major league franchise values and the expiration of the Dodgers cable television deal. He may have left in disgrace, but he also left with a couple of billion dollars thanks to the genius of capitalism. At the time it was assumed he’d ride off into the sunset, continuing to make a mint off of parking at Dodgers games (he retained a big piece of that pie) and not get his hands messy with sports ownership again.

Such assumptions were inoperative:

The soccer club has suffered from poor financial decisions in recent years. So I guess it was a match made in heaven.