Daily Dose: Rangers sticking with Davis

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General manager Jon Daniels said Tuesday that the Rangers will stick
with Chris Davis and Derek Holland despite their respective struggles.
Davis is batting just .204 with an MLB-high 94 strikeouts in 206
at-bats, putting him on pace to break Mark Reynolds’ single-season
record of 204 with plenty of room to spare, but will get a chance to
right the ship because Daniels doesn’t want to “bail on him.”

Davis was never a good bet to hit .285 again, but striking out in 46
percent of his at-bats is absurd even for his standards and he almost
can’t help but make more contact going forward. If the Rangers truly
stick with him, Davis should be able to hit .250 or so with 15-20
homers over the final 100 games. He’s batting .375 with 12 homers and
nine doubles in 112 at-bats when he actually makes contact.

Daniels’ decision to stay with Holland is perhaps more surprising,
because unlike Davis he’s yet to experience any success in the majors.
Holland has a 6.63 ERA over 36.2 innings split between the rotation and
bullpen, but Daniels said that the plan is to “let Derek pitch every
fifth day and give him a chance to improve.” He’s a strong long-term
prospect, but may not be quite ready to thrive at 22 years old.

While the Rangers utilize their spot atop the AL West to show patience, here are some other notes from around baseball …

* John Smoltz’s final rehab start will come Wednesday at Triple-A
and he’s set to join the Red Sox’s rotation next Thursday versus the
Nationals. There have been tons of rumors about Boston shopping Brad
Penny to make room for Smoltz, but the Red Sox announced Tuesday that
they’ll put off the difficult decision by going with a six-man rotation for now.

* David Ortiz went deep again Tuesday and narrowly missed a second
homer as he drove in a season-high three runs. Ortiz hit .185 while
homering once through the May, but has gone deep four times in 36
at-bats this month while bringing his OPS up from .570 to .663. His
season totals are still going to be ugly, but Ortiz is definitely
showing some serious signs of life again.

* For now at least Dontrelle Willis remains in the Tigers’ rotation
despite his 6.60 ERA, but manager Jim Leyland announced Tuesday that
his next scheduled start will be skipped. Willis has allowed 28 runs on
37 hits and 28 walks in 34 innings, including handing out eight free
passes in his last outing, and Zach Miner will get the call against the
Brewers this weekend.

* Ervin Santana was scratched from his Tuesday start with a sore
forearm, but is hoping to avoid the disabled list after an MRI exam
cleared him of any structural damage. Sean O’Sullivan pitched very well
in Santana’s place versus the Giants and will likely stick in the
rotation for however long he’s sidelined. Meanwhile, the plan to
replace Scot Shields with Kelvim Escobar has been put on hold for now.

AL Quick Hits: Torii Hunter (ribs) is planning to rejoin the
lineup Wednesday after losing a battle with the still-unbeaten outfield
wall … Travis Hafner homered and drove in three runs Tuesday for the
second straight game … Robinson Cano and Joe Mauer both had 4-for-4
nights Tuesday … Roy Halladay (groin) played catch Tuesday and is still
hoping to make his next scheduled start … Denard Span remained
sidelined Tuesday by an inner-ear infection, but the Twins got Michael
Cuddyer, Joe Crede, and Glen Perkins back … Felix Hernandez tossed a
two-hit shutout Tuesday in San Diego … Kenji Johjima (toe) is set to
begin a rehab stint at Triple-A this weekend … Gil Meche threw shutout
ball for the second straight start Tuesday, this time with a complete
game … Carlos Quentin (foot) jogged and took batting practice Tuesday,
but remains weeks from returning … Frank Francisco (shoulder) reported
no problems following a bullpen session Tuesday.

NL Quick Hits: Ivan Rodriguez homered Tuesday while tying
Carlton Fisk for the all-time record in games caught … Johan Santana
refuted former pitching coach Rick Peterson’s claim that his surgically
repaired knee remains an issue … Willy Taveras finally snapped his
0-for-32 streak Tuesday, but Emmanuel Burriss and his 0-for-27 were
sent back to Triple-A … Chris Volstad was knocked around for eight runs
Tuesday and has served up the third-most homers in the NL … Casey
Kotchman came off the disabled list Tuesday, with Daily Dose favorite
Barbaro Canizares heading back to Triple-A … Brad Lidge (knee) reported
no problems following a bullpen session Tuesday … Chris Young looks DL
bound with a sore shoulder after failing to make it out of the third
inning Sunday … Brandon Webb (shoulder) has a bullpen session Friday
and hopes to return around the All-Star break …Edinson Volquez (elbow)
threw from 110 feet Tuesday, but isn’t close.

Looking Ahead to Next Year’s Hall of Fame Ballot

ATLANTA, GA - MAY 15:  Chipper Jones #10 of the Atlanta Braves stands in the on-deck circle prior to batting against the Cincinnati Reds at Turner Field on May 15, 2012 in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
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We’re only a night’s sleep removed from the 2017 Hall of Fame class being announced but, hey, why not look ahead to next year’s ballot?

After yesterday’s vote there are two guys clearly banging on the door: Trevor Hoffman at 74% and Vladimir Guerrero at  71.7%. It’d be shocking if they didn’t get in.

Also back, of course, and already polling over 50%, which tends to ensure eventual election, are Edgar Martinez (58.6); Roger Clemens (54.1); Barry Bonds (53.8); and Mike Mussina (51.8). All of them are worthy and each of them should have some segment of the baseball commentariat pushing their cases.

But the new class of eligibles is formidable too. Let’s take a preliminary look at everyone we’ll be arguing about next December:

  • Chipper Jones: You have to figure he’s a first ballot guy;
  • Jim Thome: 612 homers will say a lot and, I suspect, most people believe he’s a first ballot guy too. Still, his handling will be curious. Yes, was a better hitter than Sammy Sosa. But was he so much better that it justifies Thome getting 75% in his first year while Sosa is scraping by in single digits? According to Baseball-Reference.com, Thome and Sosa are each other’s most similar comp in history. This is less a Thome point than a Sosa one, of course. I think they both belong.
  • Omar Vizquel: Every few years a defensive specialist hits the ballot and the writers go crazy. When a defensive specialist who got along really, really well with the press comes along, Katie bar the door. Vizquel is gonna cause a lot of arguments about the measurement and value of defense. He’s also going to cause a lot of people to say things like “you had to watch him play” and “it’s not the Hall of Stats!” He’s going to cause a lot of stathead types to counter with “but Scott Rolen was just as good on defense as Vizquel, but you don’t like him!” It’s gonna get ugly. It’ll be glorious.
  • Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones: Will probably be one-and-done, but way better than you remember. If we wanna talk defense, I’ll offer that I have never seen a better defensive center field in my lifetime than Jones. It’s a shame that his falling off a cliff in his 30s will taint that as his legacy.
  • Chris Carpenter and Livan Hernandez: Hall of pretty darn good pitchers who will be fun to talk about;
  • Hideki Matsui: Also one and done, but everyone loves him so I bet he gets some “good guy” votes;
  • Jamie Moyer: A first-time eligible at age 55. Sandy Koufax had been in the Hall of Fame for 18 years when he was the age Moyer will be when he hits the ballot.
  • Scott Rolen: Way better than people believe now and way better than people said at the time. As suggested above, his defense was nowhere near as raved about during his career as it would be if he played today. If his 72.7 career bWAR was heavier on offense as opposed to distributed 52.1/20.6 on offense and defense, people would’ve probably talked him up more. Career WAR for Jim Thome: 72.9. Career WAR for Derek Jeter: 71.8.
  • Johan Santana: The Hall of What Could’ve Been if Shoulders Weren’t So Dumb.
  • Kerry Wood: The Hall of What Could’ve Been if Elbows Weren’t So Dumb. Still, if Jack Morris can stick on the ballot for 15 years based on one dang game, I don’t see why Wood can’t get some support based on a better one.

There are a couple of other fun “oh my God, how has he been retired that long?” names that will appear on next year’s ballot. Check out the whole list here.

Jorge Posada highlights 16 one-and-done players on Hall of Fame ballot

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 24:  Jorge Posada addresses the media during a press conference to announces his retirement from the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on January 24, 2012 in the Bronx borough of  New York City.  (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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Former Yankees catcher Jorge Posada received only 17 total votes (3.8 percent) on the 2017 Hall of Fame ballot. Unfortunately, he is one of 16 players who fell short of the five percent vote threshold and is no longer eligible on the ballot. The other players are Magglio Ordonez (three votes, 0.7 percent), Edgar Renteria (two, 0.5 percent), Jason Varitek (two, 0.5 percent), Tim Wakefield (one, 0.2 percent), Casey Blake (zero), Pat Burrell (zero), Orlando Cabrera (zero), Mike Cameron (zero), J.D. Drew (zero), Carlos Guillen (zero), Derrek Lee (zero), Melvin Mora (zero), Arthur Rhodes (zero), Freddy Sanchez (zero), and Matt Stairs (zero).

Posada, 45, helped the Yankees win four World Series championships from 1998-2000 as well as 2009. He made the American League All-Star team five times, won five Silver Sluggers, and had a top-three AL MVP Award finish. Posada also hit 20 or more homers in eight seasons, finished with a career adjusted OPS (a.k.a. OPS+) of 121, and accrued 42.7 Wins Above Replacement in his 17-year career according to Baseball Reference.

While Posada’s OPS+ and WAR are lacking compared to other Hall of Famers — he was 18th of 34 eligible players in JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s WAR-based Hall of Fame metric — catchers simply have not put up the same kind of numbers that players at other positions have. That’s likely because catching is such a physically demanding position and often results in injuries and shortened careers. It is, perhaps, not an adjustment voters have thought to make when considering Posada’s eligibility.

Furthermore, Posada’s quick ouster is somewhat due to the crowded ballot. Most voters had a hard time figuring out which 10 players to vote for. Had Posada been on the ballot in a different era, writers likely would have found it easier to justify voting for him.

Posada joins Kenny Lofton in the “unjustly one-and-done” group.