Projections and Paces – Angels

Leave a comment

This is the first of a series of blogs just taking a quick glance at
how my preseason projections are shaping up. This isn’t a serious
review — that will come after the season — so I’m just looking at a
few hitters from each team and ignoring pitchers and injured players
for now.

Mike Napoli
2008: .273/.374/.586, 20 HR, 39 R, 49 RBI, 7 SB in 227 AB
Proj : .242/.349/.463, 18 HR, 53 R, 52 RBI, 5 SB in 322 AB
Pace: .269/.350/.481, 21 HR, 55 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB in 408 AB

Napoli’s average is undergoing a correction now. He was as high as
.343 on May 8 and .327 on May 18, but his strikeout rate has been on
the way up since then. I expect his average to go lower still.

Torii Hunter
2008: .278/.344/.466, 21 HR, 85 R, 78 RBI, 19 SB in 551 AB
Proj : .270/.333/.465, 23 HR, 82 R, 91 RBI, 17 SB in 551 AB
Pace: .319/.397/.616, 42 HR, 118 R, 133 RBI, 29 SB in 564 AB

Career season would scarcely begin to describe it. All of those
numbers, with the exception of at-bats, would be career highs. His
current bests are a .289 average, 31 HR, 94 R, 107 RBI and 23 SB.

Bobby Abreu
2008: .296/.371/.471, 20 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, 22 SB in 609 AB
Proj : .291/.380/.451, 17 HR, 99 R, 89 RBI, 25 SB in 594 AB
Pace: .297/.394/.421, 8 HR, 71 R, 84 RBI, 39 SB in 546 AB

With two homers and five doubles in June, the power finally seems to
be coming back. Too bad the steals have disappeared. He’s 0-for-1 this
month after going 15-for-15 in April and May.

Kendry Morales
2008: .213/.273/.393, 3 HR, 7 R, 8 RBI, 0 SB in 61 AB
Proj : .291/.332/.450, 17 HR, 73 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 529 AB
Pace: .271/.322/.495, 26 HR, 73 R, 89 RBI, 0 SB in 570 AB

Morales is showing better power than anticipated, but his struggles
against left-handers have hindered his average. He’s batting .186 with
no homers in 43 at-bats against southpaws.

Chone Figgins
2008: .276/.367/.318, 1 HR, 72 R, 22 RBI, 34 SB in 453 AB
Proj : .282/.354/.358, 4 HR, 90 R, 47 RBI, 43 SB in 561 AB
Pace: .324/.399/.411, 3 HR, 123 R, 47 RBI, 57 SB in 630 AB

Figgins wasn’t any good in April and he was still hitting in the
.240s into mid-May, so we’re a long way from knowing how this will turn
out. If the last couple of years are any indication, injuries will be a
factor at some point.

Juan Rivera
2008: .246/.282/.438, 12 HR, 31 R, 45 RBI, 1 SB in 256 AB
Proj : .280/.327/.476, 21 HR, 67 R, 83 RBI, 2 SB in 496 AB
Pace: .315/.353/.507, 24 HR, 55 R, 84 RBI, 0 SB in 530 AB

Rivera, likewise, has been red hot for a month. Even so, he’s on
pace for just 55 runs scored and 84 RBI and it’s not like he’s going to
keep hitting .315. 24 homers is realistic.

Evan Longoria: “I just kind of feel sorry for the Rays fan base.”

Joe Scarnici/Getty Images
5 Comments

The Rays were busy over the weekend, trading starter Jake Odorizzi to the Twins, designating All-Star outfielder Corey Dickerson for assignment, and then picking up C.J. Cron in a deal with the Angels. The Rays saved about $4 million — Odorizzi’s $6.3 million less Cron’s $2.3 million salary — and picked up a prospect. They’re still on the hook for Dickerson’s $5.95 million salary until they can find a trade partner, which seems likely.

Those are some head-scratching moves if you’re a Rays fan or a member of the Rays. Dickerson hit .282/.325/.490 with 27 home runs, 62 RBI, and 84 runs scored in 629 plate appearances last season, part of which resulted in his first trip to the All-Star Game. Designating him for assignment is strictly a financial move, assuming he can be traded. The Rays are currently operating with a payroll below $70 million. This comes just a week and a half after Rays ownership proposed the public footing most of the bill for the club’s new stadium. And the Rays had traded third baseman Evan Longoria — then the face of the franchise — to the Giants earlier this offseason.

Longoria expressed sympathy for Rays fans for having to put up with this. Via Andrew Baggarly, Longoria said of the curious Dickerson move, “I just kind of feel sorry for the Rays fan base. … I’m not going to take too many shots but it’s pretty obvious that guy is a valuable player and didn’t deserve to be DFAd. Corey was our best player last year.”

Longoria isn’t quite on the money there. By WAR, Dickerson ranked fifth among position players on the team, according to Baseball Reference. FanGraphs is also in agreement. Still, it’s indisputable that Dickerson, who turns 29 years old this May, more than pulled his weight. The Rays do not have a surfeit of starting outfielders, so it wasn’t like they were making room for other capable players. Mallex Smith, who put up a .684 OPS in 282 PA last year, is slated to start in left field at the moment. Designating Dickerson for assignment, as well as trading Longoria and Odorizzi, were simply cost-cutting decisions.

The Rays’ M.O. has been part of the problem leading to the current stagnant free agent market (sans Eric Hosmer‘s eight-year deal on Saturday). Teams like the Rays, Phillies, Reds, and Tigers have been explicitly putting out non-competitive teams in order to facilitate a rebuilding process. Longoria is right to express sympathy for Rays fans, who see their favorite team worsening a roster that went 80-82 last year. The Rays haven’t finished at .500 or above since 2013 and doesn’t figure to halt the streak this year.