Good face, bad player: Why track records matter

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It’s a bad sign when you’re hitting .247/.296/.300 for the fifth-worst OPS in the league and the local newspaper is running articles questioning your defense.

Such is the life of Emilio Bonifacio, who got some people way too excited
with a few great games to begin the season and has since predictably
lived up to his minor-league track record by being one of the worst
everyday players in baseball.

Back in mid-April, when Bonifacio was sporting a .500 batting average after a handful of games, Jon Heyman of SI.com wrote about
how “Florida stole an undervalued speed demon ready to contribute” when
they acquired him from Arizona. Here’s more from Heyman’s glowing
piece:

But the Marlins knew better. And now, a week into his Marlins
career, Bonifacio, who moves faster on the diamond than anyone in
baseball, has moved up in everyone else’s eyes. Those outside the
Marlins organization once again view the 23-year-old as an exciting
young player after watching him ignite the Marlins offense with a .500
batting average, exhibit the best baseball speed since Deion Sanders
and lead his club to a 5-1 start.

The Marlins’ scouts seem to know things others do not, so they
figured it might be worthwhile to give Bonifacio, primarily a second
baseman, a look at third base. So far the slap-hitting speed demon has
looked like a star at a position normally reserved for power hitters.
Bonifacio put together multiple-hit efforts in the Marlins’ first five
games of the season and produced enough theatrics to excite even the
minimal crowds they draw down here.

Keep in mind that those words were written about a player who had
produced a .703 OPS over 656 games in the minors and .629 OPS over 60
games the majors coming into this season. And while Heyman was one of
the more vocal Bonifacio bandwagon occupants, he certainly wasn’t alone.

There were all kinds of articles popping up about his supposed
“breakout” and there were all kinds of angry missives in my e-mailbox
about my “unfair” skepticism. Yet for all the talk of how “the Marlins’
scouts seem to know things others do not” and all the hyperbole about
Bonifacio possessing “the best baseball speed since Deion Sanders” at
the end of the day he’s performing exactly like his minor-league track
record predicted.

And since starting the season with 14 hits in 24 at-bats, Bonifacio
has batted .213 with a .272 on-base percentage, .238 slugging
percentage, zero homers, and a 41/14 K/BB ratio while being thrown out
on four of his nine steal attempts in 38 games. I’m sure that his
“theatrics” are still off the charts, though.

Steven Matz likely to start season on DL; Zack Wheeler to adhere to innings limit

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Mets manager Terry Collins said on Wednesday, “It’s unlikely that [Steven Matz] will start the season with us.” The final spot in the Mets’ starting rotation will go to either Zack Wheeler or Seth Lugo, Newsday’s Marc Carig reports.

On Wheeler’s innings limit, assistant GM John Ricco said, “There’s going to be some number but we don’t exactly know what that is.” Wheeler missed the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Neither Wheeler nor Lugo have had terrific springs as each carries a 5.11 and 5.56 Grapefruit League ERA, respectively. However, Carig notes that Wheeler has impressed simply by appearing healthy and brandishing a fastball that once again sits in the mid- to high-90’s. Lugo, meanwhile, proved crucial to the Mets last year, posting a 2.67 ERA across eight starts and nine relief appearances.

Rockies sign 30-year lease to stay in Coors Field

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Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports that the Rockies agreed to a $200 million, 30-year lease with the Metropolitan Baseball Stadium District, which is the state division that owns Coors Field. As part of the deal, the Rockies will lease and develop a plot of land south of the stadium, which will cost the team $125 million for 99 years.

As Groke points out, had the Rockies not reached a deal by Thursday, March 30, the lease would have rolled over for five more years.

Rockies owner Dick Monfort issued a statement, saying, “We are proud that Coors Field will continue to be a vital part of a vibrant city, drawing fans from near and far and making our Colorado residents proud.”

The Rockies moved into Coors Field in 1995. It is the National League’s third oldest stadium. In that span of time, the Rockies have made the playoffs three times, the last coming in 2009 when they lost in the NLDS to the Phillies. The Rockies were swept in the 2007 World Series by the Red Sox.