Arredondo goes from 10-2 with 1.62 ERA to Triple-A

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Jose Arredondo began last season in the minors, but quickly joined the
Angels’ bullpen and went 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA and .190 opponents’
batting average in 61 innings while gradually moving past Scot Shields
to become Francisco Rodriguez’s primary setup man.

Rather than turn to Arredondo as their new closer when Rodriguez
departed as a free agent this offseason, the Angels signed Brian
Fuentes to take over ninth-inning duties and left Arredondo in a setup
role … where he’s posted a 5.55 ERA in 25 appearances.

Arredondo was demoted to Triple-A this morning, with manager Mike Scioscia explaining
that he “needs to work some things out” and “has obviously taken a
small step backwards.” There’s no getting around the fact that
Arredondo has allowed far more hits and runs than last year, but
delving a little deeper into his performance reveals some interesting
things.

While certainly very good, his 57/22 K/BB ratio in 61 innings last
season wouldn’t normally produce a 1.62 ERA or .190 opponents’ batting
average. Arredondo was extremely fortunate in terms of his balls in
play being converted into outs, which the Angels’ defense accomplished
an astounding 76 percent of the time compared to the AL average of 69
percent.

The opposite has been true this year, as his 27/12 K/BB ratio in 24
innings is much better than his 5.55 ERA–and not far from his 2008
rates–but the Angels’ defense has turned his balls in play into outs
just 60 percent of the time. Scioscia is no doubt right that he could
stand to work on some things and his increased line-drive rate has also
played a part in the ball-in-play numbers, but the biggest difference
between last year’s 1.62 ERA and this year’s 5.55 ERA basically boils
down to luck.

Last season Arredondo struck out 23 percent of the batters he faced,
walked 9 percent of the batters he faced, induced 51 percent ground
balls, and served up two homers in 244 plate appearances. This season
Arredondo has struck out 25 percent of his batters faced, walked 9
percent of his batters faced, induced 49 percent ground balls, and
served up zero homers in 110 plate appearances.

The nuts and bolts of his performance really haven’t changed much at
all, and in fact in some ways have actually improved. As usual focusing
on ERA fails to tell the whole story, particularly for relief pitchers,
and a deeper look at Arredondo’s numbers suggests that he would have
turned things around soon enough. However, the guy with a 1.62 ERA from
last season likely isn’t coming back because he never really existed
outside of a world where the defense behind him is played by four Ozzie
Smiths and three Willie Mayses.

2016 Winter Meetings Preview

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD - FEBRUARY 26: The Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center is seen along the Potomac River February 26, 2014 in National Harbor, Maryland.  (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
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The baseball world will descend on Washington D.C. — well, the Maryland suburbs of Washington, at the Gaylord Resort at National Harbor — this weekend for the 2016 Winter Meetings. There’s a lot of work to be done.

Twenty free agents from a class of 191 have signed thus far. Among the notable: Yoenis Cespedes, Edinson Volquez, Neil Walker, Josh Reddick, Bartolo Colon, and R.A. Dickey. That, of course, leaves a ton of notables left, including Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Turner, Joe Bautista, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Mark Trumbo, Mark Melancon, Rich Hill and a host of others. Here is our rundown of this offseason’s top free agents if you’re curious. As you have come to expect from us, we’ll have a writeup of everyone who signs, faster than almost anyone else will.

Despite the sheer number of available free agents, this is an historically thin free agent class in terms of talent. That means that, for a team to improve significantly, they may be better served by making a trade. We’ve seen a couple already, most notably the deals which sent Taijuan Walker to the Diamondbacks, Jaime Garcia to the Braves and Brian McCann to the Astros. Most experts believe there will be plenty more this winter, and the ball could really get rolling on that in the next week with guys like Andrew McCutchen, Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Brandon Phillips on the block.

Another major activity of the Winter Meetings is the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee vote. Except, this year, there is no Veterans Committee, at least in name. It’s now the “Today’s Game” committee. Here are links to breakdowns of the candidacies of all ten men on the ballot the new committee will consider:

Harold Baines
Albert Belle
Will Clark
Orel Hershiser
Mark McGwire
George Steinbrenner
Davey Johnson
Lou Piniella
John Shuerholz
Bud Selig

Trade deals, free agent negotiations and Hall of Fame votes take place behind closed doors at the Gaylord Resort. One of the major public activities of the Winter Meetings is when all 30 of the managers meet and greet the press. This year’s new faces are Torey Lovullo with the Diamondbacks, Rick Renteria with the White Sox and Bud Black with the Rockies. Brian Snitker, now the permanent manager of the Braves, will get his first go-around at the managerial cattle call. I’ll be in the scrum for a lot of these guys — they do them two at a time so I can’t see everyone — and will let you know if they say anything fun.

Outside of the transactions and the Hall of Fame stuff, we have the more mundane Winter Meetings business. And a lot of it. Indeed, the vast majority of the people at the Meetings aren’t there for transactions. They’re there to network, seek jobs and discuss the business of baseball like any other industry convention. Ever year we hear about a rule change or a proposal for future rule changes at the Meetings, though this year’s brand new Collective Bargaining Agreement should overshadow that. We’ve already discussed the major points of that and, yesterday, I speculated that, as time goes on, the way this agreement was reached could lead to some serious strife going forward, particularly on the union side. Expect to hear some anonymous rumblings about all of that in the next few days, from players, agents and other interested parties who may not be all that pleased with how it goes.

The final event of the Winter Meetings is the Rule 5 Draft, which will take place at 8am on Thursday morning. You likely have no idea who most of the players who will be selected are, but here’s a good place to start your research on that. If your team takes someone in the draft, the most important thing to know is that he’ll either be on the big league roster all year or he’ll have to be returned to his original team. Well, they could be stashed on the disabled list with phantom injuries so they won’t have to be returned, but no team would ever do that, would they? Perish the thought.

So, yes, there’s a lot to be done. I’ll be on the scene at National Harbor, bringing you all the best hot stove business we have to offer and, as usual, some more fun odds and ends from baseball’s biggest offseason event. As they used to say in radio, tune in to us and rip off the dial. Or, at the very least, keep a tab open to us and refresh a lot.

The Padres non-tendered RHP Tyson Ross

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 04:  Tyson Ross #38 of the San Diego Padres walks off the field as he's taken out of the game in the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers on opening day at PETCO Park on April 4, 2016 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
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Per a report by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, the Padres non-tendered right-handed starter Tyson Ross on Friday, cutting loose their top ace after three seasons with the club.

Ross, 29, was sidelined for the bulk of the season with inflammation in his right shoulder and underwent thoracic outlet surgery in October. His injuries limited him to only 5 1/3 innings in 2016, during which he gave up seven runs and struck out five in a 15-0 blowout against the Dodgers.

Prior to his lengthy stint on the disabled list, the right-hander earned 9.5 fWAR and pitched to a 3.07 ERA and 9.2 K/9 rate in three full seasons with the Padres. He avoided arbitration with a one-year, $9.625 million deal prior to the 2016 season after leading the league with 33 starts and delivering a 3.26 ERA and career-best 4.4 WARP over 196 innings in 2015.

The Padres appear open to bringing Ross back to San Diego, reported Cassavell, albeit not at such a steep cost. Cassavell quoted Padres’ GM A.J. Preller, who was reportedly in trade talks involving Ross but unable to strike a deal, likely due to the right-hander’s recent health issues. Preller denied that those same health issues factored into the club’s decision to non-tender their ace.

With the move, Ross became one of 35 major leaguers to enter free agency on Friday.